806
FXUS64 KMAF 180512
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

After the active day we had yesterday, today is a breath of fresh
air. The trough responsible for yesterday`s storms continues its
eastward trek across the Red River Valley today, though a subtle
shortwave on the western periphery of this departing trough could
generate enough lift to produce isolated showers and
thunderstorms, mainly south of I-10 this afternoon. Storms that
develop would likely be short-lived, and capable of producing
gusty winds and small hail, with no severe weather expected.
Despite the westerly to northwesterly surface flow and associated
downsloping component, temperatures today remain on the cool side
in the wake of Thursday`s front, with highs on target to top out
in the lower to middle 80s for most, with 90s focused along the
Rio Grande and Pecos Valleys. Tonight will be on the mild side as
light southerly to southeasterly return flow resumes, with lows in
the lower to middle 60s for most of the region.

For those who enjoy the cooler temperatures, you should probably
stop reading here, because a significant warm up is on hand for
Saturday, which then carries well into next week. As the
aforementioned trough departs, mid-level ridging will waste no
time building in on Saturday, coincident with the return of the
low-level thermal ridge. Light downsloping westerly flow on
Saturday afternoon will add a touch of compressional warming to
the mix, yielding highs in the middle to upper 90s for most and
100s along the river valleys. Even the mountains won`t escape this
time, with highs in the lower to middle 90s possible, and only
the highest elevations sticking it out in the 80s. These
temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year, and while Midland usually doesn`t see its first 100 degree
day of the year until May 31st, we`ll be flirting with it tomorrow
with a forecast high of 99. Needless to say, it`ll be sunny and
dry, with no rain expected. On the heels of the hot day tomorrow,
tomorrow night will stay relatively warm as well, with lows once
again in the 60s for most locations.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures Sunday and Monday have been increased from previous
runs. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen across the central to
eastern portions of the area, while aloft, upper level thermal
ridging builds in, with the axis of a thermal ridge centered over
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This along with strong
southerly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will result in
daytime temperatures Sunday and Monday reaching 100 degrees and
above over most of West Texas, with the first 100 degree day of
the year expected for Midland-Odessa. Strong southerly flow will
keep lows elevated overnight in the 60s and above, so don`t expect
much relief overnight during this early season heatwave. 850mb
temperatures around 32-35 degrees Celsius likely translate to
highs 10 to 15 degrees above average, 90s west and east of the
Pecos River in the SE NM plains, 100s across the Permian Basin and
along the Pecos River in SE NM, 105+ over the Trans Pecos, and
110+ along the Rio Grande, especially Sunday and Monday when the
warmest temperatures of the long term are expected. However, we
may see the highest heat-related impacts on Monday. Higher
elevations are the only locations seeing highs only reaching the
low 90s. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s are expected both Sunday
night and Monday night. Temperatures remain warmer than average
Tuesday, but an approaching upper level trough and associated cold
front Tuesday into Wednesday will mark the end of this early
season heatwave, with highs mostly in the 90s north of the Pecos
River and in higher elevations Tuesday, and lows Tuesday night
falling into the 50s across the far northern SE NM plains and
Permian Basin. By Wednesday as this trough passes by to the north
and a cold front moves through, highs will be cooler but still
warmer than average for mid May, highs upper 80s and 90s, 100s
confined to the Rio Grande, with lows ranging from mid 50s across
the far northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin as well as higher
elevations, to mid 60s elsewhere, with any upper 60s to low 70s
confined to the Rio Grande. Unfortunately this cooldown will be
short lived, and temperatures will warm once again by the end of
the week with highs in the 90s and above most locations and lows
in the 60s and above aside from 50s in higher elevations and
northernmost SE NM plains. Currently, no rain chances are
indicated with the cold front mid week and we are not expecting
any rainfall accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR continues through the period with light winds becoming
westerly this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62 101  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70 104  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66 104  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           66  91  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  98  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    54  96  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68 102  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     62 106  67 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29