Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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900 FXUS64 KMAF 230522 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1222 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Early this afternoon, showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across the northern Permian Basin northward across the South Plains in an isentropic upglide regime in the wake of this morning`s cold front. The front has become somewhat diffuse, but based on latest surface observations, appears to be roughly along the I-20 corridor in the Permian Basin, with a weak surface low currently located in the vicinity of the southern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Both of these features will facilitate thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening, and while the severe threat is notably lower today than yesterday given cooler temperatures and lingering cloud cover, breaks in the clouds could allow MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg to be realized. Shear is notably lower than yesterday as well (up to around 30kt in the vicinity of the front), thus a more multicellular mode is anticipated with congealing outflows yielding a damaging wind threat, though a few stronger storms could produce marginally severe hail as convection moves east- southeastward through this evening. Tonight, the front will resume its southward momentum in earnest, though as the broad trough over the region maintains its positive tilt, midlevel flow will facilitate additional rainfall, especially across the eastern/southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area. The severe threat will wane this evening, though there will remain a medium potential (30-60%) for at least intermittent showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary concerns, especially across far eastern areas and across the Stockton Plateau where cell training may occur. Lows will trend cooler tonight, ranging from the 50s north and across the higher terrain to lower to middle 60s elsewhere, with lower 70s confined along the Rio Grande. Monday will see continued rain chances, especially south of I-20, though potential trends lower (10-30%) as the trough and associated speed max translate east-northeastward. While today is the first day of astronomical fall, Monday will certainly feel like it, with highs in the 70s for most of the area, plenty of cloud cover, and intermittent showers possible. The unsettled pattern lingers Monday night, with continued showers and thunderstorms possible as lows drop into the 50s and 60s, though fortunately, no severe weather is expected. JP && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Deterministic and ensemble models are showing less of a closed upper low east of the Four Corners and more of a fast moving shortwave embedded in larger scale troughing over the central CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. Deterministic ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and ICON all show the short wave closing off, but farther east over the ArkLaTex rather than E NM. As a result of this more open, fast moving short wave scenario looking more likely, have decreased PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the short wave aloft is forecast to drag a surface cold front down from the north across the CWA. Because of the sharp gradient of the front, we are expecting the broad area of 30 to 40 PoPs to narrow and sharpen in future model runs, with showers and storms delivering most of the rain that falls. NBM has backed off on rain totals, mainly showing 1 inch or higher amounts over the eastern Permian Basin into Stockton Plateau, with highest amounts farther to the northeast of the CWA. The LREF-NH Grand Ensemble and European ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS ensemble clusters are all depicting this as well. High temperatures Tuesday will be warmer than Monday and mostly in the 80s ahead of the cold front, but by Wednesday will be more similar to Monday and below average in the 80s, 70s over higher elevations. Thicknesses and heights rise as ridging builds in from the western CONUS. However, the ridge being located to the west will prevent the greatest amount of southerly return flow, keeping temperatures near normal and mostly in the 80s, 70s over higher elevations, and 90s and above near the Rio Grande into the eastern Stockton Plateau and along the Pecos River Thursday into next Sunday. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Plains will keep conditions dry. Highs and lows have trended upward by a few degrees in most recent NBM runs, again demonstrating that models are depicting that troughing may not be as large in magnitude and persistent this week as was indicated in earlier runs. As a result of the lower high temperatures compared to last week, lows will fall into the 50s and 60s for most of the area each night Tuesday night through next Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current observations show most sites across the area are MVFR and should stay there until lifting to VFR after 15Z. TS has moved east of all TAF sites and should not be a factor this TAF period. Northeast winds will diminish and become southeasterly after 18Z. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 85 64 82 / 30 30 40 10 Carlsbad 59 87 62 85 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 66 87 68 87 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Stockton 62 87 63 84 / 20 20 20 20 Guadalupe Pass 59 81 61 78 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 58 85 60 82 / 10 20 20 10 Marfa 55 83 58 82 / 40 40 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 60 85 65 82 / 30 20 30 10 Odessa 62 85 65 83 / 30 20 30 10 Wink 62 88 65 87 / 20 20 20 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...10