Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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298 FXUS64 KMAF 240528 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 As noted below in the aviation section, a quasi-stationary clearing line bisects the CWA, with mostly cloudy skies extending southeast of a Gail to Odessa to Valentine line. Moist isentropic upglide will commence later this evening as a short wave trough approaches from the west and induces a return to southeasterly winds just off the deck. This will serve two purposes: the first is to keep the clouds across the southeastern CWA more or less intact and the second is to promote the development of fog just to the north and west of the clearing line, where radiational cooling and a collapse of the low- level T/Td spreads will promote efficient formation. There is the low (< 25 percent) potential of showers and thunderstorms overnight in between I-10 and I-20 as well, but QPF will be spotty at best. Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 70s with light and variable winds becoming southeasterly as we head toward sunrise. Fog and low clouds will persist through the mid morning hours Tuesday over the southern Permian Basin; otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny. There is the outside (< 25 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with light east to southeast winds. Tuesday night should be nearly a carbon copy (minus the fog chances) of tonight`s conditions, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Deterministic and ensemble clusters depict broad troughing to the east of the area as secondary shortwave trough amplifies east over the ArkLaTex within larger long wave troughing stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Great Plains and Southern Mississippi River Valley. A surface cold front associated with this trough will move through the area Wednesday afternoon, with cold air advection in its wake. However, with clearing skies allowing for diurnal heating, we are expecting near to above normal temperatures as high pressure settles in, mostly in the 80s with 70s in higher elevations and 90s near the Rio Grande. Heights and thicknesses build east from the western CONUS late this week into this weekend, with a warming trend ensuing. Large scale subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances and keep conditions dry, with temperatures in the 80s and above Thursday through next Monday, and highs rising into the 90s again making an appearance over parts of the Permian Basin, along the Pecos River and over the Upper Trans Pecos, in addition to near the Rio Grande. Even as highs will be above average, they will remain cool enough that lows will still drop into the 50s and 60s for most of the area each night Wednesday night through next Monday night under mostly clear skies and light winds. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions with light winds from the southeast are currently being reported at all terminals. Widespread light to moderate fog is expected to develop by morning, most likely between the 12-15Z time frame. Uncertainty remains moderately high on the level of visibility reductions from this fog and worse conditions than currently forecast may materialize. At this time, confidence on MVFR or IFR reductions from fog is highest at MAF and HOB. Any fog that develops should quickly lift by late morning and light southeast winds with VFR conditions resume. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 84 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 86 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 68 89 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 63 87 60 87 / 10 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 79 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 60 84 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 58 83 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 84 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 65 85 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 66 89 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...91