948
FXUS64 KMAF 241729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The last little bit of active weather is expected over the next
36 hours before an extended period of quiet weather arrives in the
long term forecast period. To start the period, a broad longwave
trough is centered over the Upper Midwest. Two shortwaves are
embedded in this flow, one over the Ozarks and one over the
Dakotas. With time, these features gradually phase and deepen,
becoming a cutoff-low over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by
Wednesday. At the same time, an upper-high builds over the Four
Corners, amplifying the overall pattern.

This morning, a weak, convectively-enhanced disturbance is
causing a few thunderstorms over the Presidio Valley. Elsewhere,
light winds and clear skies should result in fog across the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos around sunrise. Temperatures will be
cool and moist, mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Despite
the morning fog, temperatures warm up into the upper 80s and low
90s by afternoon. As the previously mentioned trough deepens this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms appear likely across
the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau with the aid of upslope
flow. Elsewhere, without the aid of topography and with no frontal
boundary, rain chances appear nill. With the deepening trough
transitioning to a cutoff-low to our east, a weak cold front
pushes through the area Tuesday night. Unfortunately, with large-
scale forcing far removed from the region and dry continental air
quickly filtering in, rain chances look unlikely with the front.
On the bright side, after a cool morning in the upper 50s and low
60s, temperatures remain cooler during the afternoon, mainly in
the middle 80s under sunny skies. This is just a touch below
normal for late September.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The jet stream is going to be unusually far removed to the north
over the extended forecast leaving a series of stationary highs
and lows stretching from the eastern Pacific to the western
Atlantic oceans. The ones to affect us will be a high over the
western United States and low pressure sitting over the lower
Mississippi River valley. This upper air scenario keeps surface
ridging over the Great Plains this week preventing much change in
temperatures as highs vary only a few degrees through the weekend.
Northerly upper flow situated between the two pressure systems
will also advect dry air and prevent any rain chances. Not good if
you are looking for rainfall but overall we could do worse than
dry with temperatures near climatological norms.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR remains at all terminals through this afternoon. Winds continue
to be light from the east to southeast. Low (10%) chance for SHRA
near FST this afternoon, but not included in TAF issuance due to low
confidence. Amendments possible. Front moves through from the north
late tonight shifting winds to the north and northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  82  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  86  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   68  90  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  87  59  88 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  79  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  84  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  83  53  85 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     64  83  59  85 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   65  84  60  86 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     66  89  61  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93