Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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366 ACUS11 KWNS 290615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290614 TXZ000-290745- Mesoscale Discussion 1063 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...TX South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290614Z - 290745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A narrow swath of severe hail and wind may persist through about 3 AM CDT before likely weakening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that produced multiple golf-ball size hail reports in the past hour across Roosevelt County, NM has evolved into a supercell bowing structure in the South Plains west of Lubbock. CAM guidance has handled this particular area of convection quite poorly, with successive runs of the HRRR initializing and then immediately weakening the cell within the first hour. MRMS MESH values have recently diminished to around 2 inches as the bowing structure evolved which suggests the potential for significant severe hail is diminishing. Despite the likely elevated character, a swath of severe wind gusts may occur until the cell finally subsides, which was recently confirmed by a 62 mph gust at the Morton West TX Mesonet site. This appears likely to occur as it shifts away from the instability axis over eastern NM and relatively weaker deep-layer shear with eastern extent per time-series comparison of area VWP data. ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34030273 33960224 33870165 33490122 33120127 33010155 33060196 33310266 33820284 34030273