703
ACUS11 KWNS 261307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261307
FLZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Discussion 2111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 683...

Valid 261307Z - 261500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across the Florida
Peninsula this morning, persisting into the early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene is currently located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Several rainbands, with embedded thunderstorms, are
located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending across the
Florida Peninsula. The latest RAP has a pocket of moderate
instability across the southern and central Florida Peninsula, with
MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This is consistent
with the Miami, Florida 12Z sounding, which also has 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 35 knot range, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
300 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be favorable for
tornadoes with semi-discrete supercells embedded in the outer
rainbands of Hurricane Helene. The tornado threat should continue
this morning and into the early afternoon as Hurricane Helene moves
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

..Broyles.. 09/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   27828021 28368038 28628057 28808105 28838160 28648211
            28138236 27308239 26288209 25578157 25188105 25128074
            25248039 25598009 26467994 27828021