Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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104 FXUS64 KMEG 231830 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 130 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with gusty winds and hail. An upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Each day will feature below normal temperatures with medium to high chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The latest surface analysis places a 1012mb low over western Arkansas with a cold front extending southwest through central Texas. Aloft, a positively-tilted trough is churning over Nebraska. A leading weak perturbation, embedded in southwest flow, is translating through central Arkansas at this hour. A few light showers are noted on radar, mainly along the Tennessee and Kentucky border. The aforementioned trough will slowly deepen and phase with a northern stream shortwave through Tuesday. Appreciable height falls will occur late this afternoon and into the evening and spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north of I-40. A few of the storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats. The threat window will remain limited to late afternoon through early evening, as instability will wane quickly. The trailing cold front will slowly cross the Mississippi River on Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, instability will increase to around 2000 J/kg, mainly across portions of west Tennessee and north Mississippi. A few strong to severe storms will be possible along and slightly ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon before it crosses the Tennessee River late Tuesday night. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat as mid level lapse rates are rather poor around 6 C/km. The front will become orphaned just to our east by Wednesday afternoon as the parent low lifts into Quebec. Cloudy conditions and cooler temperatures will persist across the region as an upper low moves overhead and stalls. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain over the Mid- South Thursday and into the weekend as the upper low interacts with a tropical system coming north out of the Gulf of Mexico. The track and intensity of the tropical system still remains a bit uncertain, however, a good signal for heavy rainfall is materializing. The latest WPC 5 day QPF shows a range of 3 to 5 inches across much of the Mid-South. The pattern looks to remain unsettled through the long range forecast as the upper low remains stalled over the region. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Primary concern is TS chances through Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears than mid and high level clouds will limit instability and thunderstorms chances this afternoon. Will continue to monitor cloud tops for ice accretion and TS potential through the afternoon. JBR could see some TS this evening, near the southern extent of greater TS coverage over MO. This convection will be driven by a midlevel trough passage forcing the issue. Given limited instability, MEM may be a little too far removed from this forcing to support overnight TSRA. 18Z TAF continued the PROB30 TSRA after 04Z for continuity. This may be removed in future updates. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB