756
FXUS64 KMEG 311955
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
255 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern will persist over the next 5 days or
so. A large upper level disturbance will move across the region
through Saturday evening. This will lead to a few waves of showers
and thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds will be the main threats. Less organized showers
and thunderstorms will persist Sunday through early next week as
we remain warm and humid. Dry conditions look to return to the
Mid- South late next week behind a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A tropical-like day across the Mid-South this afternoon. The
latest KNQA radar sweep reveals a band of light stratiform
showers moving north across Mississippi and west Tennessee at this
hour. No thunder has been noted, but scattered thunderstorms have
developed over central Arkansas. The aforementioned activity is
expected to slowly drift east into the Mid-South later this
afternoon and persist through the overnight hours as the main
shortwave slowly moves east. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will
accompany this activity. In fact, HREF guidance suggests that 2
to 4 inches of rainfall may fall along and west of the Mississippi
River through Saturday morning. A few instances of flash flooding
are possible in the aforementioned areas as multiple bands rotate
around the upper level low.

The majority of rain will come to an end Saturday evening as the
main shortwave departs to our east and heights build in behind the
exiting system. Nearly zonal flow will set up across the region
Sunday through early next week. Several perturbations will
translate through the westerlies with at least scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible each day. There is also the possibility
of a couple of MCSs or MCVs moving through the region at some
point through next Wednesday. Timing of thunderstorms and key
features remains nebulous at best, as steering flow will be rather
weak around 20 knots. Nonetheless, cloud cover and thunderstorms
will keep temperatures from climbing too high during this
timeframe.

Synoptic models are in good agreement with a large upper low
descending down across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley towards the end of next week. This will help push a cold
front through the region and bring the return of dry conditions
and lower humidity through the end of the week. The Mid-South
looks to remain in northwest flow in the long term as the main
upper low stalls over the Quebec.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A boundary continues to lift north with associated -SHRA
along its movement. Around 22Z, VCTS looks to begin along this
same boundary as increased cloud cover moves across the airspace.
Around sunset, ceilings are expected to begin lowering to MVFR/IFR
conditions, spreading west to east with the movement of
convection. Confidence is on the lower end as far as -TSRA
prevailing across each terminal. Highest confidence in -TSRA
exists over TUP as the line of convection looks to bow out over
northern Mississippi. Fog also looks to develop across each
terminal around sunset as ample moisture will be associated with
convective movement.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH