Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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308 FXUS64 KMEG 010203 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 903 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 9PM radar imagery depicts mostly stratiform rain pushing into the Mid-South with the closest thunderstorm situated over Little Rock, Arkansas. The main concern overnight will be flooding as rainfall rates are expected to increase over the next few hours. Storm total rainfall will range from 1-3 inches with areas west of the Mississippi River forecast to see the highest precipitation amounts through Saturday morning. This may further aggravate elevated rivers and streams, resulting in a few instances of flash flooding. Overall, the severe weather threat overnight will remain minimal due to a lack of instability across the Mid-South. Instead, be prepared for heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding in the morning. ANS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A wet and unsettled pattern will persist over the next 5 days or so. A large upper level disturbance will move across the region through Saturday evening. This will lead to a few waves of showers and thunderstorms moving through the Mid-South. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main threats. Less organized showers and thunderstorms will persist Sunday through early next week as we remain warm and humid. Dry conditions look to return to the Mid- South late next week behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A tropical-like day across the Mid-South this afternoon. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals a band of light stratiform showers moving north across Mississippi and west Tennessee at this hour. No thunder has been noted, but scattered thunderstorms have developed over central Arkansas. The aforementioned activity is expected to slowly drift east into the Mid-South later this afternoon and persist through the overnight hours as the main shortwave slowly moves east. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will accompany this activity. In fact, HREF guidance suggests that 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may fall along and west of the Mississippi River through Saturday morning. A few instances of flash flooding are possible in the aforementioned areas as multiple bands rotate around the upper level low. The majority of rain will come to an end Saturday evening as the main shortwave departs to our east and heights build in behind the exiting system. Nearly zonal flow will set up across the region Sunday through early next week. Several perturbations will translate through the westerlies with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day. There is also the possibility of a couple of MCSs or MCVs moving through the region at some point through next Wednesday. Timing of thunderstorms and key features remains nebulous at best, as steering flow will be rather weak around 20 knots. Nonetheless, cloud cover and thunderstorms will keep temperatures from climbing too high during this timeframe. Synoptic models are in good agreement with a large upper low descending down across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley towards the end of next week. This will help push a cold front through the region and bring the return of dry conditions and lower humidity through the end of the week. The Mid-South looks to remain in northwest flow in the long term as the main upper low stalls over the Quebec. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact aviation across the Midsouth for the next 24-30 hours. Prevailing winds will remain southerly generally 10-15kts with gusts in the 15-20kt range. LLWS conditions will be marginal, will amend as needed. IFR cigs overnight should improve mid-morning. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JDS