Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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733 FXUS64 KMEG 260817 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Showers from Helene will begin across the Mid-South tonight. A Flood Watch will go into effect tonight at 7 PM and persist until 7 AM Saturday morning for West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, most of eastern Arkansas, and a portion of north Mississippi. Rain chances will begin to decrease Saturday and slowly phase out by Monday. Dry and cool conditions return Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 A low pressure system is currently parked along the KY/IN/IL borders at this hour. Hurricane Helene will make landfall this evening along the Panhandle of Florida. The large and quick moving system will then track northwest towards the Mid-South. Due to the size of the system, outer rain bands will begin to approach the area around sunset tonight. A Flood Watch will go into effect tonight at 7 PM and persist until 7 AM Saturday morning for West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, most of eastern Arkansas, and a portion of north Mississippi. For these areas, generally 3-4" of rain is expected between tonight and Saturday morning. The bulk of this rainfall will occur on Friday. Guidance has been trending to show an axis of heavy rainfall from Blytheville, Arkansas to Martin, Tennessee with 4-6" expected. This axis of heavy rainfall could shift, so monitor the forecast closely. The short lived tropical rain is due to Helene`s interaction with the cutoff low. A Fujiwara effect seems likely with these two systems, which will bring some additional gusty winds across West Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast Arkansas. There is roughly a 40-60% chance of wind gusts 40 mph or higher on Friday for Memphis and northward. Helene will eventually phase with the upper low and lift towards the Ohio Valley and leave light to moderate showers on Saturday. A few light/drizzle showers are possible on Sunday as the system pulls away from the region. A pattern change will arrive Monday evening as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will quickly cross the region and allow high pressure to settle in. Dry and cool conditions will prevail from Tuesday morning through the remainder of the forecast period. Drier air will reach the surface beginning Tuesday evening with forecast dewpoints to drop into the 50s by Wednesday morning. DNM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Winds will be primary aviation weather impact through 00Z/27, as the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten in advance of Hurricane Helene. Rain will begin to spread into the Midsouth late Thursday evening, aided by a deepening upper level low over eastern AR. IFR appears a good bet toward 12Z Friday. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049. MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for MOZ113-115. MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for MSZ001>009. TN...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB