Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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785 FXUS62 KMFL 240545 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 145 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mid-lvl ridging will remain positioned over the area for one more day maintaining warm temperatures aloft, a layer of mid-lvl dry air, and synoptic subsidence over South Florida. Rain chances will be limited to isolated-scattered coastal convergence showers over the east coast (the best set-up for this looks to be this AM over Palm Beach county), and scattered thunderstorms over SW Florida this afternoon as the synoptic easterly flow encounters the nearly pinned Gulf breeze. Seasonably warm temperatures can be expected with highs in the low 90s near the east coast and mid 90s over Interior and SW Florida. We will begin to see the first fringe impacts from PTC 9 over SFL tonight into Wednesday as deep tropical moisture begins to advect northward, as evidenced by PWATs increasing over 2.2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances will increase from north to south tonight (although likely confined to the waters and coastal regions), with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected during the day on Wednesday. Additionally southeasterly winds will become increasingly breezy with gusts 25 to 30mph Wednesday afternoon. However the circulation of the developing system should remain far enough to our east that a wash-out does not look likely, and the most significant impacts from the system likely will likely hold off until the long-term period. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the middle to latter portion of the week, all eyes turn to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it moves up from the Carribean Sea and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, deep tropical moisture will push into the region which will gradually increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday. While the exact details still remain uncertain, confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlooks put us in a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) on Wednesday, and a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the west coast on Thursday. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, uncertainty still remains high and will depend on the exact track of the system. If the storm were to track further to the east, this would increase the rainfall totals across the region, however, a track further to the west would decrease these totals. In general, rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday evening look to range from 2 to 5 inches across the region with locally higher amounts. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With the increased cloud cover through the middle to the end of the week, high temperatures could be held down and remain in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is hinting at mid level ridging building over the area on Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to keep deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail from what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region. With an abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep the enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the forecast as well as it will be dependent on exactly where this moisture tail sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With southwesterly wind flow in place, high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s across Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning, although temporary restrictions in showers will be possible at KPBI. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the day with thunder chances mostly confined to KAPF. Winds will generally remain easterly through the period with gusts 15 to 20kts possible during the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Easterly winds will become fresh over the waters today as the gradient strengthens to the north of PTC 9 in the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will then turn hazardous on Wednesday as the disturbance intensifies and lifts northward into the SE GOM, with tropical storm conditions possible over the Gulf waters and Gale conditions possible on the Atlantic waters on Thursday. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will also increase Wednesday into the late-week period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Minor coastal flooding will remain possible over the east coast today but should generally be spotty as astronomical tides decrease. Moderate to major coastal flooding can be expected over the Gulf coast late Wednesday into Thursday as PTC 9 strengthens and tracks through the SE Gulf of Mexico. Strengthening onshore flow will result in an extended period of high rip current risk over the east coast (likely through the workweek), with potentially hazardous surf developing over the Palm Beaches in the mid-week period. Additionally hazardous beach conditions look likely over the Gulf coast beaches starting Thursday as surf increases in association with PTC9. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 89 79 / 30 60 80 90 West Kendall 92 78 89 78 / 40 60 80 90 Opa-Locka 92 80 90 79 / 30 60 80 90 Homestead 90 80 88 79 / 40 60 80 90 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 88 78 / 30 60 80 80 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 89 79 / 30 60 80 80 Pembroke Pines 92 80 90 80 / 30 60 80 90 West Palm Beach 90 79 89 79 / 30 50 80 70 Boca Raton 90 79 90 79 / 40 50 80 80 Naples 94 79 90 78 / 40 30 80 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Storm Surge Watch for FLZ069-075. Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ069-075. AM...None. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Carr