Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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069 FXUS62 KMFL 211621 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1221 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Drier air in the wake of a boundary that has slipped south and east into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas has settled over southern Florida. Additionally, mid-level high pressure is extending from over the Gulf of Mexico. The 12z MFL sounding showed a drier atmosphere with a precipitable water value of 1.74 inches. The light, generally northerly drainage flow through the weekend will keep remoistening somewhat limited for the majority of the area. The sea and lake breezes that develop and advance inland will help bring a more locally moist airmass that could help spur and support convection, but in general, activity should be more limited in coverage compared to previous days this week. With less cloud cover and convection, high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast each afternoon with max heat index values that hoover from the upper 90s to around 103. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Moving into the new week, an expansive mid-level ridge will stretch across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern CONUS as the lingering trough drifts into the Atlantic. This ridge will be the primary synoptic influence in the weather pattern during the early to middle portion of the week as it gradually shifts eastward and centers over South Florida. At the surface, as high pressure strengthens to the north, east-northeasterly wind flow will gradually increase early next week due a tight pressure gradient from a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Keys and the high pressure to the north. Mid-level drier air will work in from the north bringing the PWAT values down to 1.5-1.8" over the region on Monday and Tuesday. While this will help to reduce shower and thunderstorm chances each day, the stalled frontal boundary to the south will keep a sufficient supply of low-level moisture in the southern half of the Peninsula. With the assistance of sea breezes and outflow boundaries, this will support daily scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region, with the best chance along, and to the south of, Alligator Alley. Temperatures will be just above seasonal normals with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and mid-90s in far SW FL. While the heat indices will likely reach the triple digits, the drier air should provide a relief from heat advisories due to dew points dropping into the low to mid 70s, especially in the first half of the week. Looking further into the week, confidence continues to run low and uncertainty rises as guidance still remains in disagreement in regards to a potential tropical disturbance. Models vary about the future of a Central American Gyre, which may consolidate into a more defined area of low pressure over NW Caribbean and southern GOMEX. The latest guidance remains in disagreement in its intensity and placement of this feature during this time frame as there is currently no area of low pressure to track. Until an area of low pressure forms, guidance will remain poor in resolving this potential disturbance until something trackable actually develops. As of 2AM, The National Hurricane Center currently gives a 60 percent chance of development over the next 7 days, with early next week the potential time. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. Regardless, there is indication of a wet latter half of the week as moisture will try to advect back into the region, which will increase daily showers and thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A few storms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR conditions should prevail today. Generally VFR conditions tonight with light and variable wind; some inland patchy fog is possible overnight into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Generally light winds continue through Sunday with a decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Minor coastal flooding will continue to affect all coastal areas of South Florida around high tide today and tonight. Conditions should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal flooding during high tide. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been transitioned to a Coastal Flood Statement through Sunday evening. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days. High Tide Tides... Virginia Key - 12:18 PM Sat, 12:28 AM Sun, 1:13 PM Sun South Port Everglades - 11:35 AM Sat, 11:46 PM Sat, 12:30 PM Sun Lake Worth Pier - 11:18 AM Sat, 11:30 PM Sat, 12:14 PM Sun Naples Bay, North - 4:38 PM Sat, 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:56 PM Sat, 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 91 77 90 / 20 30 20 40 West Kendall 74 92 75 91 / 20 30 20 40 Opa-Locka 76 92 77 91 / 20 30 20 40 Homestead 76 91 76 90 / 20 30 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 76 89 78 89 / 20 30 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 91 78 90 / 20 30 20 30 Pembroke Pines 76 93 78 92 / 10 30 20 40 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 90 / 20 20 20 30 Boca Raton 76 91 78 91 / 20 20 20 30 Naples 75 91 76 92 / 30 20 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...RAG