Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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952 FXUS62 KMFL 221823 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 223 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mid-level high pressure remains well-established over the Gulf of Mexico including the peninsula of Florida. A surface boundary remains to the south of the area separating drier air from the tropical airmass in the Caribbean. The combination of the drier air and high pressure aloft will again bring shower and thunderstorm chances below climatological norms for this time of year today and again on Monday. A warming trend commences as we head into Monday but the dewpoint recovery may take a bit longer thanks to a lack of atmospheric moisture transport from the tropics. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s generally with heat index values in the lower 100s. The light northerly to northeasterly drainage flow returns tonight and will again lead to a light and variable start for Monday. Eventually easterly flow will pick up as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and the boundary to the south. Morning coastal showers will transition inland and west through the afternoon and evening before the remnant convection focuses over the local waters overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tuesday will likely be the driest day of the long term period. Moderate easterly flow and a lingering surface boundary across the FL Straits will keep much of the precip over the far southern portion of the peninsula, with just low end chance PoPs around the lake region. Attention for the middle to end of the week turns to an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms currently over the NW Caribbean. Conditions appear favorable for tropical development over the next several days as the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While there is plenty of uncertainty at this point regarding impacts to South FL, increasing moisture across the area will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area, with the highest PoPs over SW FL Wednesday through Friday. WPC has much of the region in a Marginal risk for excessive rain on Day 4, and a Slight risk west and south of the lake on Day 5. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple days. Once a system forms, confidence will start to increase regarding direct impacts of rainfall, wind, etc for South FL. Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week with high temps ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. The rest of the week temps will be in the mid to upper 80s, and depending on timing and coverage of rainfall, some locations may end up cooler than that. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A few showers and storms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR conditions with onshore flow should prevail. Wind will lighten and become variable overnight. Morning Atlantic showers return and the focus should shift inland and west near the end of the period but chances are too low to mention or restrict. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Generally light winds will continue with a decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Winds will veer easterly and strengthen early in the week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late week which could cause deteriorating conditions across the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low- lying coastal areas. The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended into Monday. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days. High Tide Tides... * Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun, 1:21 AM Mon, 2:09 PM Mon * South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun, 12:40 AM Mon, 1:28 PM Mon * Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun, 12:25 AM Mon, 1:14 PM Mon * Naples Bay, North - 5:50 PM Sun, 4:16 AM Mon, 7:21 PM Mon * Flamingo Visitors Center - 7:53 PM Sun, 7:12 AM Mon, 9:02 PM Mon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 30 West Kendall 75 92 76 90 / 20 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 92 78 91 / 10 20 20 30 Homestead 77 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 79 88 / 10 20 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 20 30 West Palm Beach 78 90 79 90 / 20 30 20 20 Boca Raton 78 91 79 90 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 77 92 76 93 / 20 40 20 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...RAG