348
FXUS66 KMFR 290944
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
244 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024


.DISCUSSION...Ridging over the northeastern Pacific will build
into the region today as yesterday`s trough slides to the east.
This ridge will then remain in control through Friday, with
dry conditions and a warming trend that will peak with well above
normal highs Friday afternoon. The thermal trough will return
during this time, resulting in strong north to northeast winds in
the coast range and a Chetco Effect, which will lead to warmer
temperatures around Brookings than elsewhere on the coast.

A weak trough and front then arrive late Friday into early
Saturday, and although very little, if any, measurable rain is
expected outside of the immediate coast, temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler Saturday than on Friday.

A second, much deeper trough will arrive late Sunday into Monday,
and this will reinforce the cooling trend, bringing temperatures
down below normal for Monday. Temperatures will only be half the
story, however, as the system is forecast to produce measurable
rain for almost all areas along and west of the Cascades, with a
decent chance for some areas to the east as well.

High pressure quickly returns, in strength, for the reminder of
the forecast term (Tuesday and Wednesday), with temperatures
quickly warming back to above normal, perhaps well into the 90s
for some areas. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore.
MVFR/VFR ceilings are currently being observed. These
conditions will last into tomorrow morning before improving to VFR
in the afternoon. The south coast should remain VFR through the TAF
period.

Inland, west of the Cascades, Ceilings are expected to remain VFR
through the TAF period. Winds tomorrow afternoon will not be as
strong as they were today.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period. The main concern will be moderate winds with peak gusts
possibly nearing 25 kts at Klamath Falls tomorrow afternoon. -
Schaaf/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM Wednesday, May 29, 2024...Relatively calm
conditions are expected this morning with light to moderate winds
and low seas. A thermal trough will develop during the day
today resulting in increasing north winds that will reach Small
Craft for all southern waters, except beyond 5 nm from shore west of
Port Orford. The thermal trough will strengthen further late
Wednesday night through at least Friday evening and this will result
in Gale force winds for a good chunk of the southern waters, except
beyond 40 nm from shore west of Cape Blanco. Meanwhile Small Craft
Conditions will expand north over the rest of the waters that will
last into at least Friday evening.

The thermal trough will weaken overnight Friday into Saturday with
north winds diminishing as an upper trough approaches. Calmer seas
are expected by the weekend and into early next week.
-Hermansen/Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this
     afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-
     376.

&&

$$