809
FXUS66 KMFR 251028
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
328 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...

Still a few echos on radar this morning east of the Cascades as
this upper level trough swings through the forecast area. Data
suggests temperatures are trending a little cooler today compared
to yesterday as some cooler air filters into the forecast area.
That will change on Sunday as 500 mb heights continue to rise and
high pressure builds over southern Oregon and northern California
on Sunday. The temperatures on Sunday are right in line or just a
few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

By Memorial Day upper level heights will begin to fall ahead of
the next trough over the Pacific. Temperatures continue to rise,
especially east of the Cascades with temperatures pushing into the
upper 70`s for highs on Memorial day. There are a few models
suggesting convection could pop up along the Cascades and east of
the Cascades on Monday evening. The probability for this occuring
is under 5%. The upper level wave is pretty far away and we would
like to see it a little closer to the coast to provide stronger
synoptic lift. Otherwise, pretty quiet weather to close out the
next few days.

-Smith

.LONG TERM.../Issued 219 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024/

The general consensus is for a deeper upper trough presence Tuesday
night through Thursday. The main impact will be cooler temperatures,
with the best chance for showers along and north of the Umpqua
Divide and northern Cascades. The operational ECMWF and GFS show
signs of convective feedback east of the Cascades which could
result in a slight chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon and early evenings. This is in response to energy
(triggers) rounding the base of the upper trough. The NBM does not
pick up on this, but pattern recognition suggest it warrants at
least a slight chance.

Digging deeper, the ensemble means (GFS and ECMWF) show upper
troughing Wednesday and Thursday, but not as deep as the
operational models which could be a result of some individual
members washing it out. Last nights run of the clusters show split
solution (50/50) between the upper trough and ridging.

The upper troughing will eventually push east towards the end ofthe
week into the following weekend although about 33% of the members
maintain an upper trough over the PAC NW. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the
region with the exception along the coast where IFR/LIFR conditions
are occurring, although this will lift to MVFR through the morning.
Ceilings will continue to lower for areas west of the Cascades with
terrain obscurations increasing through the early morning. MVFR
conditions are developing in the Umpqua Basin with conditions
remaining generally VFR or low end VFR for areas south of the Rogue-
Umpqua Divide. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR areawide
later this morning. /BR-y/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Saturday, May 25, 2024...Gusty north to
northwest winds will persist into Saturday with steep, short period
seas expected for all areas through Saturday morning. Gusty north
winds (with gusts up to 25 kt) and steep seas will linger Saturday
afternoon and evening for areas south of Cape Blanco.

Winds and seas are expected to lower Sunday into Monday but may
remain locally gusty and locally steep for areas south of Cape
Blanco. Another front moves through next Tuesday but expect mainly
light winds. This is followed by a potential for increasing north
winds and seas on Wednesday and Thursday. -CC/Hermansen

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$