739
FXUS66 KMFR 262100
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear skies over most of the
forecast area. The exception is along the coast from about Gold
Beach south, although it`s clear in Brookings as of this writing.

Dry weather will continue through the forecast period. A weak front
will move into the northwest part ofthe area late tonight and could
bring a few sprinkles in far northwest Douglas County late tonight
into the mid morning hours Friday. The main impact will be
increasing onshore flow with marine stratus returning along the
coast early this evening, then later tonight north of the Umpqua
Divide.

Friday will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the
interior. A thermal trough will set up along the south Oregon coast
resulting in increasing north winds along the coast. The marine
stratus in the Umpqua, Coquille Basin and coast will linger for most
of the morning, then burn off with clear skies in the afternoon.
Elsewhere it will be clear.

Saturday will be similar to Friday with dry weather and warm
afternoon temperatures for the interior. Sunday, another upper
trough will swing north of the area, and a dry cold front will push
into the area. It will remain dry, but cooler in the afternoon, with
gusty afternoon and early evening breezes for the interior westside
valleys. Winds will be stronger east of the Cascades Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, but not strong enough reach wind
advisory criteria. It will also remain windy along the coast with
thermal trough remaining in place.

Zonal flow sets up over the area Monday and Tuesday with upper
ridging nudging in resulting in dry and warmer afternoon
temperatures. Basically these two days will be rather uneventful
with similar conditions both days.

An upper trough will swing northeast ofthe area Wednesday. It will
remain dry, but it will be cooler with gusty afternoon and early
evening breezes for the interior westside valleys and east of the
Cascades. Thursday is expected to be dry and warmer. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAFS...Along the coast areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings
will continue through this morning, especially from Gold Beach
south. VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon, before marine
stratus develops again later this evening and continues into Friday
morning with IFR/LIFR ceilings, especially from Cape Blanco north. A
weak front moving into the area Friday morning, will allow ceilings
to rise to IFR/MVFR along the coast.

Inland, marine stratus is confined to the Umpqua Basin, Including
Roseburg and it will burn off  by early afternoon. Guidance shows
Roseburg clearing out towards 19z, which looks reasonable given the
extent and depth of the marine layer. Once the marine stratus burn
off, VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon into most of
tonight. A front could bring clouds back into the Umpqua early
Friday morning, but ceilings should remain VFR with the terrain
partly obscured towards 12z.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
-CC


&&

.MARINE...Updated 2 PM, September 26, 2024...Conditions will
remain relatively calm through tonight.

Steep northwest swell will build into the area by Friday morning,
and will continue through Saturday. Meanwhile, the thermal trough
will reestablish itself along the coast Friday, producing gusty
north winds and steep wind-driven seas. This combination of
conditions will result in a period of chaotic and potentially
hazardous seas Friday evening through Saturday, then on Sunday,
swell will diminish with winds possibly increasing to gales.
Overall, expect hazardous conditions through the weekend due to a
combination of strong winds and steep to very steep seas.

Gusty winds and elevated seas are expected next week, at least small
craft advisory conditions ongoing through late in the week. -CC


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 11
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$