Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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170 FXUS62 KMLB 241233 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 833 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Previous Key Messages: - Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high chance (100%) for tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens. - While it is too early to describe exact impacts to east central Florida, heavy rain and winds are becoming an increasing concern. - A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for heavy rainfall into the weekend. Current-Tonight...Tight moisture gradient has pushed further south with highest PWATs 1.60-1.80 inches across Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Martin counties. KMLB 88D only shows some ISOLD shower activity moving into southern Martin County and the adjacent local coastal waters. Areas northward only stand a 10pct chance or less of seeing any precip. The temp at H500 on the KXMR morning sounding was a sultry -2.6C. Mid-level high pressure across the area is responsible for limiting instability/providing subsidence. Again, mainly dry over land tonight, except for a small PoP across St. Lucie and Martin counties and the adjacent coastal waters of the Treasure Coast. E/ESE winds today increasing to 10-15 mph (15-20 mph along coast) with higher gusts in play. Wind speeds diminish to 5-10 mph over the interior this evening, remaining elevated 10-15 mph along the immediate coast. Highs in the U80s along the coast with near 90F to L90s into the interior. Lows in the M-U70s, with around 80F at the immediate coast and barrier islands and conditions remaining muggy. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 729 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Continued tranquil flying conditions today with the only VCSH mention at SUA. TS probabilities are <20% at all sites. E winds increase to 10-15 KT with G15-20 KT between 15Z and 00Z. VFR prevails. Conditions will begin to deteriorate beyond the TAF period as moisture increases ahead of PTC #9, leading to showers/storms becoming likely by later Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Today...Weak surface high pressure continues to drift further into the western Atlc. Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight. Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape. Lower coverage of showers today as drier air filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today-tonight building 4-5 ft Tue and up to 6 ft Tonight in the Gulf Stream Cape southward. Wed-Sat...Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 24 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25+ kts Wed overnight into Thu with seas building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 kts with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases below 15 knots and this will allow seas to fall below 5 feet offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 40 60 MCO 92 76 90 78 / 0 0 60 60 MLB 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 60 70 VRB 89 78 89 79 / 10 10 70 70 LEE 93 75 90 76 / 0 0 50 60 SFB 91 76 89 77 / 0 0 60 60 ORL 92 77 90 78 / 0 0 60 60 FPR 89 78 88 78 / 20 20 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ044>046-053-144. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Heil