Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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017 FXUS62 KMLB 260628 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 228 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Increasing SE to S winds as Hurricane Helene strengthens over the eastern Gulf and accelerates N/NE next 12-18 hours. Prevailing VFR to start with VCSH at all terminals. Will be watching for some increase in SHRA/isold TSRA developing over the terminals toward daybreak as rainbands lift northward across the southern and western FL peninsula. "Helene" will bring significant aviation impacts to all terminals on Thursday as S/SE winds increase 20-30 knots with gusts 45-55 knots possible esp in fast-moving rainbands. AMDs likely needed but have inserted a TEMPO from 18Z-22Z for best chance for IFR/MVFR reductions. Have maintained mention of non- convective LLWS for MCO btwn 00Z-06Z when wind fields maximize just above the sfc. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Local preparations ahead of Hurricane Helene`s impacts should now be complete. Conditions are forecast to deteriorate overnight into Thursday morning as the cyclone intensifies, moving north- northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most locations have experienced a brief break from the rain in the last hour or two, but another outer rain band from Helene is impacting the Treasure Coast and is expected to continue north toward the Space Coast in the next 1-2 hours. These heavy showers will pack gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph as they quickly move from south to north. Continued episodes of gusty rain bands, intermixed with periods of dry time, will last through sunrise Thursday. Deeper moisture is advecting northward and will continue to do so tonight, as the surface pressure gradient tightens over the Florida Peninsula. The evening XMR sounding showed quite the increase in moisture when compared to this morning`s data (1.86" PW at 15z to 2.25" at 00z). RAP analysis indicates MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg along the coast, and model guidance suggests this will expand overnight as MLCIN begins to decrease. Surface- based CIN will also erode gradually through the night, with SBCAPE climbing to 1000-2000 J/kg along and east of Interstate 95. Hi- res guidance depicts the highest lightning chances focused near the coast or just offshore. Gusty winds to 45 mph and a brief waterspout or tornado cannot be ruled out through sunrise along the coast. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings, in the event they are issued later tonight. Conditions will worsen on Thursday with daytime heating and increasing low/mid level wind shear enhancing the already gusty squalls expected across the state. The tornado threat is forecast to increase during the daylight hours, along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Continue to monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local news outlets for updated, official information on Helene. && .MARINE... Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the adjacent Atlantic waters out to 60 nm. Hurricane Helene is forecast to continue to strengthen over eastern Gulf of Mexico and accelerate into the FL Big Bend late Thursday. Boating conditions will continue to deteriorate tonight, as southeast winds increase to 25-30kts by daybreak, then 30-40kts Thursday afternoon. Seas building 7-8ft tonight, then peaking at 13ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms through Thursday. Winds will become southwest Friday, decreasing to 20-25kts and will continue to gradually decrease to near 15 knots late Friday night. Seas quickly subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore Friday. Flow remains offshore (W to SW) Saturday-Sunday up to 15 knots, with seas subsiding 3-4 Saturday and 2-3 ft Sun. There will be scattered to numerous storms pushing offshore especially Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 78 92 76 / 80 60 40 30 MCO 90 79 91 77 / 80 50 50 30 MLB 90 79 92 77 / 70 50 70 50 VRB 90 78 92 77 / 70 50 70 50 LEE 88 78 90 77 / 90 70 30 20 SFB 88 79 91 77 / 80 50 50 30 ORL 89 80 91 78 / 80 60 50 30 FPR 90 79 91 77 / 70 50 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154- 159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058- 141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Kelly