Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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570 FXUS62 KMLB 221124 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 724 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Will continue with VCSH today as lightning storm chances appear to be < 20%. VFR, except for near showers where brief categorical restrictions to MVFR/IFR occur. Lt/Vrb winds become NE 5-15 KT after 15Z, with gusts to 20 KT esp. along the coast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Minor coastal flooding remains possible into early this afternoon around high tide. Low-lying streets, yards, and docks along the barrier islands and Intracoastal Waterway may experience minor flooding. - There is a high chance (70%) for tropical development in the northwest Caribbean this week. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this may bring to East Central Florida. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Today-Tonight...We begin astronomical fall with high pressure over the Deep South drifting eastward through the day today. Northeasterly flow will advect a wave of moisture into the Florida peninsula, though PWATs look to remain below 2". Isolated to scattered showers present over the local Atlantic waters will drift onshore this morning. Then, as the east coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland this afternoon, PoPs 20-30% are forecast over the interior, especially south of Orlando. A few lightning storms cannot be ruled out. However, a very shallow layer of moisture due to dry air aloft and warm 500mb temperatures (around -4C) will work to limit available CAPE and storm chances. High temperatures this afternoon will be moderated by onshore flow around 10-15mph, reaching the upper 80s along the coast and near 90 inland. Any showers or storms are forecast to diminish or push into the western half of the peninsula by late afternoon, with drier conditions by around sunset. Lingering moisture south of Cape Canaveral will continue the chance of a few showers along and offshore from the Brevard and Treasure Coasts overnight. PoPs up to 20% for the coastal counties, with no mentionable PoPs elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures in the mid-70s, though onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the upper 70s. Monday-Tuesday...High pressure continues to drift offshore of the Carolinas through the period. Meanwhile, a trough begins to dig through the upper mid-west, with a cutoff mid-level low developing around Tuesday night in the Great Lakes region. Locally, PoPs continue to decrease, as drier air is advected into the Florida peninsula by easterly flow. Isolated to scattered showers, with a few lightning storms, lingers Monday, though PoPs 20-30% have been confined to areas south of Kissimmee. PWATs are forecast to fall below 1.5" Tuesday, with just a 20% chance lingering along and inland from the Treasure Coast. In addition to dry air advection, a mid level high moves into the area through the period, warming 500mb temperatures to as warm as -3C. Thus, overall convection will be quite limited early this week. Lower cloud cover will allow for temperatures to creep up into the lower 90s across the interior, while coastal areas remain in the upper 80s to near 90. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Wednesday-The Weekend...There is considerable uncertainty in the remainder of the forecast. The aforementioned cutoff low looks to pass through the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the eastern US. Local weather during this timeframe will be dependent on the speed and location of this feature, as it will affect the timing and track of a tropical disturbance forecast to develop in the northwest Caribbean mid to late week. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a 70% chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. Models differ on the timing and track of this system, but residents and visitors should stay up to date on the latest forecast. It is still too early to discuss specific impacts, if any, this system could bring to east central Florida. However, deeper moisture looks to return to the local area late week and possibly into the weekend, with increasing shower and storm chances. We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Deep South today drifts eastward into the Atlantic via the Carolina coast through the period. Northeast winds today veer onshore through Tuesday. Winds 10-15kts each day, especially in the afternoon hours, as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will decrease through early this week, though at least a 20% chance will linger over the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 3-4ft, with up to 5ft possible well offshore north of Cape Canaveral into this afternoon. Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 70% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 74 90 74 / 20 0 10 0 MCO 90 74 92 74 / 30 0 10 0 MLB 88 77 89 77 / 20 20 20 10 VRB 89 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 10 LEE 91 73 92 74 / 20 0 10 0 SFB 89 73 91 73 / 30 0 10 0 ORL 90 75 92 74 / 30 0 10 0 FPR 89 74 89 75 / 30 20 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Heil