Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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466 FXUS62 KMLB 212353 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 753 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 753 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Low level onshore flow will persist across the area, which will continue to transport isolated showers and potentially a few storms onshore along the coast tonight and into the early morning hours on Sunday. This activity will then develop farther inland along the inland moving east coast sea breeze into the late morning and afternoon on Sunday, with coverage remaining spotty. For now have limited mention in the TAFs to VCSH, as ridge and warmer temps building in aloft should tend to limit overall storm development tomorrow. However, can`t rule out some isolated lightning storm activity. Any showers or isolated storms will produce tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. Winds will become light and variable into tonight, and then pick up out of the NE around 7-12 knots, with gusts up to 15-18 knots at times. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Onshore winds and a northeasterly swell will promote a Moderate to High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at Central Florida`s Atlantic beaches... ...Minor coastal flooding remains possible, particularly during the late morning high tides through this weekend. Low-lying streets, yards, and docks along the barrier islands and Intracoastal Waterway may experience minor flooding... ...There remains a medium chance (60%) for tropical development in the northwest Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. It is too early to determine if and what impacts this may bring to East Central Florida. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates... Current-Tonight...Already some earlier excitement with a funnel cloud reported by Air Traffic Control from Daytona Beach Airport, associated with a cloud line over the intracoastal. Troughiness aloft will continue to weaken as it slides south/east and further out into the western Atlc. Mid-level high pressure over ERN Texas will expand across the GoMex and FL peninsula with rising heights and warmer temperatures at H500. Expect NERLY winds at the surface to average 10-15 mph with higher afternoon gusts; we may see some coastal locations average 15-20 mph this afternoon for wind speeds. A diffuse sea breeze boundary will push inland and provide a focus for convection. Only modest deep layer moisture is present and our precip chances will remain below normal with 20pct north/west of I-4 and highest up to 40pct across the Space and Treasure coasts. Storm motion will be fairly slow and out of the north to northeast. Lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds locally will be the main threats. Activity diminishes this evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast overnight for ISOLD low-topped convection chances. Overnight mins generally in the L-M70s while conditions remain humid. There will remain a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents at the beaches along Volusia and north Brevard coasts, while a Moderate risk continues southward through Martin County. Additionally, minor coastal flooding remains a concern during high tide. After this morning`s high tide, there will be a secondary peak in the late evening. Sun-Sun Night...The aforementioned mid-level high pressure ridging continues to spread its influence across the Gulf and FL peninsula. Some warming aloft will also occur. At the surface, weak high pressure will exist across the region. Light morning winds will transition to NERLY as a diffuse sea breeze develops and moves inland during the afternoon. PWATs will remain modest with highest PoPs (~30pct) generally Orlando southward. The limited instability with subsidence will limit shower and storm chances overall. Convective activity diminishes in the evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast for any onshore moving showers. Afternoon highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible across the interior. Peak afternoon heat indices top out anywhere from 97-103F. Overnight lows in the 70s with conditions muggy. ***Autumn begins at 8:43 am ET on Sunday*** .Previous Extended Forecast Discussion... Mon-Wed...Quiet early autumn weather as we head back to work and school. Deep-layer ridging continues to build as drier air drifts overhead. H5 T`s soar to a very suppressive -3 or -4C as H5 heights reach 591 dam in the grand ensemble mean by early Wednesday. Bottom line, shower/storm chances lessen to 10-20% from Orlando northward and 20-30% to the south each day. Surface high pressure drifting into the Atlantic will deliver breezy easterly winds. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thu-Sat...The weather during this timeframe will be almost entirely dictated by the ultimate evolution and movement of lower pressures and rich tropical moisture rising from the Caribbean into the Gulf. Most ensemble members show a disturbance making it into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday or Thursday. After that time, significant uncertainty remains, which is expected at this stage. Guidance on potential tropical development may take several days to resolve, due to the initial absence of a trackable feature and the evolving upper air pattern over North America. The depth and position of a trough over the Midwest still look to be the ultimate variables as to when and whether this disturbance gets a kick north/northeastward. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of tropical development in the southern Gulf to 60%. It remains too early to determine local impacts. We continue to advertise an increase in rain/storm chances (40-60%) from Thursday into next weekend, which is supported by the expected uptick in tropical moisture over the state. We are now in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Tonight thru mid next week...High pressure to the north will continue to provide for a light to moderate NNE/NE flow that will veer more ENE- E Sun overnight into early-mid next week. Speeds commonly 8-15 kts. Seas near shore 3-4 ft building to 4-5 ft over the Gulf Stream/offshore into next week. ISOLD to WDLY SCT (10-30pct) showers and lightning storms remain in the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 88 74 89 / 20 20 0 10 MCO 73 91 74 91 / 10 30 10 20 MLB 75 89 76 88 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 73 89 75 89 / 20 20 30 30 LEE 73 91 73 92 / 10 20 0 10 SFB 73 89 73 90 / 10 30 0 10 ORL 74 91 75 92 / 10 30 0 10 FPR 73 89 74 89 / 20 20 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Weitlich