Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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170 FXUS62 KMLB 231744 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR forecast through the period. VCSH continues from MLB southward for isolated onshore moving showers. East winds increase to 10-12 kts with occasional gusts between 15-18 kts. Winds diminish to around 5-8 kts overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 758 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current-Tonight...Once, again, this morning SCT "low-topped" showers across the local coastal waters; mainly Cape southward pushing toward and/or onto the coast. This trend will continue inland into this afternoon, esp south of Melbourne where moisture is deepest. We continue 10pct PoPs roughly Orlando northward and 20-40pct southward. Mainly showery precip (H500 only -3C), though cannot rule out a lightning storm or two. Activity will diminish or push into WCFL for the most part by early in the evening, but we still retain a small PoP along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts overnight. Broad mid- level ridging across the GoMex and FL peninsula will promote subsidence aloft over the next 24 hours across the region. Weak surface ridging has pushed off of the Carolina coast into the western Atlc and will continue to weaken. ENE/E winds today increasing to 10-15 mph (15-20 mph along coast) with higher gusts likely. Onshore winds (E/ESE) become light during the evening and overnight. Highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible well into the interior. Lows in the L-M70s, with U70s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and conditions remaining muggy. && .MARINE... Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today-Tue...High pressure will slowly move offshore the eastern seaboard early this week. Moderate east flow will will occur today, with a slight increase on Tue but remaining below any headlines. Scattered showers and isolated storms will occur today from the Cape southward with lower coverage on Tue as drier air filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today (occasionally 5 feet) building 4-5 ft Tue. Wed-Fri...A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours and move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wednesday into Thursday as southeast winds increase 20 knots Wed and 25 knots Thu with seas building 7-9 feet by Thursday. Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 knots wit seas subsiding below 5 feet along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 feet offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 30 MCO 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 50 MLB 77 89 79 89 / 0 0 10 40 VRB 76 89 78 89 / 0 10 20 50 LEE 73 92 76 90 / 0 0 0 40 SFB 73 91 75 89 / 0 0 0 40 ORL 74 92 76 90 / 0 0 0 50 FPR 75 89 78 89 / 10 10 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Law