Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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392 FXUS62 KMLB 231853 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 over the NW Caribbean has a high chance for further tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens... ...While it is too early to describe exact impacts to east central Florida, heavy rain and increasing winds are becoming an increasing concern, as well as an isolated tornado threat... ...A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for heavy rainfall into the weekend... Current-Tonight-Tue-Tue Night...A tight moisture gradient in place keeping ISOLD-SCT showers (20-40pct) (ISOLD lightning storm) mainly near Orlando southward, and 10pct threat further northward. Otherwise warm & humid conditions with highs in the U80s (coast) and near 90F to L90s inland. Conditions remain very warm aloft (-3C to -4C) limiting instability as subsidence is the main feature here with mid-level ridging spreading across the Gulf and FL peninsula. Any convective activity is expected to diminish or push into WCFL by early evening. We do maintain a small PoP (20pct) for southeast St. Lucie and Martin counties overnight. Weak surface high pressure northward has pushed off of the Carolinas into the western Atlc and will continue to weaken and drift seaward. ENE/E winds 10-15 mph (15-20 mph along coast) with higher gusts will diminish this evening and overnight becoming light and veering slightly to E/ESE, but may still stay up around 5-10 mph along the immediate coast. Overnight mins in the L-M70s, with U70s along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and conditions remaining muggy for both tonight and Tue night. Highs Tue should mirror those of today (Mon). Will also keep a small PoP (20pct) across the Treasure Coast and southern Osceola/Okeechobee counties for Tue. Slightly higher wind speeds for Tue, only with a slight veering to E/ESE. .Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Wed-Sun...Increasing consistent model guidance continues to forecast a tropical cyclone developing in the NW Caribbean and lifting north into the SE Gulf of Mexico while strengthening Wed-Thu. Confidence on size, intensity and forecast track remains low but is gradually increasing. The NHC has begun initiating PTC9 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine) advisories. NHC has also scheduled an Air Force recon mission to investigate the disturbance at this (Mon) afternoon. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles remain consistent showing an upper ridge over the SW Atlc and a developing cut-off low over MO/AR that steers this system north to north northeast up thru the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the NE gulf coast later this week. While it is too early to describe specific impacts for EC FL, heavy rainfall and increasing winds are becoming an increasing concern. Other hazards such as isolated tornadoes may also come into play. Models show a brief dry slot across the area Thu night/early Fri then a plume of deep moisture redevelops over the FL peninsula late Fri into the weekend long after the tropical system has departed. This would produce high rain chances and a continued threat for heavy rainfall, on ground that may be largely saturated. We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Afternoon-Tue Night...Weak surface high pressure continues to drift further into the western Atlc. Moderate E/ESE flow will continue during this time with winds increasing further Tue night 13-18 kts. Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms will occur this afternoon from the Cape southward with lower coverage on Tue as drier air filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today-tonight building 4-5 ft Tue and up to 6 ft Tue night in the Gulf Stream Cape southward. .Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Wed-Fri...Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25+ kts Wed overnight into Thu with seas building 7-9 ft (perhaps 10 ft north of the Cape during Thu). Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 kts with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 202 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to remain in Moderate Flood Stage through at least Friday before falling into Minor Flood Stage on Saturday. However, any additional heavy rainfall later this week and into the weekend will have the potential to delay the decline further and may cause additional rises. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR forecast through the period. VCSH continues from MLB southward for isolated onshore moving showers. East winds increase to 10-12 kts with occasional gusts between 15-18 kts. Winds diminish to around 5-8 kts overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 30 MCO 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 50 MLB 77 89 79 89 / 0 0 10 40 VRB 76 89 78 89 / 0 10 20 50 LEE 73 92 76 90 / 0 0 0 40 SFB 73 91 75 89 / 0 0 0 40 ORL 74 92 76 90 / 0 0 0 50 FPR 75 89 78 89 / 10 10 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Law