Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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857 FXUS62 KMLB 240932 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 532 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Key Messages: - Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high chance (near 100%) for tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens. - Heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds are an increasing concern. - A plume of deep moisture may remain behind and keep a threat for heavy rainfall into the weekend. Today...Dry airmass will limit rain chances though lingering moisture across the far south (Martin/Okeechobee counties) will produce isolated showers. Prospect for deep convection (thunder) looks too low to mention. A warm day with max temps in the lower 90s interior and upper 80s coast. Tonight...winds become SE and increase a bit above the boundary layer. This should increase shower chances and have added a slight chance for thunder. Wed-Mon...Model guidance remains consistent in forecasting a tropical cyclone developing in the NW Caribbean and lifting north into the SE Gulf of Mexico while strengthening Wed-Thu. Confidence on size, intensity and forecast track is gradually increasing. This storm looks to have a large wind field once it matures, extending far to the east of the center while in the Gulf of Mexico. There is some along-track (timing) differences with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF slowing down at least in the first 36 hours with some meandering around the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles remain consistent showing an upper ridge over the SW Atlc and a developing cut-off low over MO/AR that steers this system north to north northeast up thru the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the NE gulf coast later this week. While it is too early to describe specific impacts for EC FL, heavy rainfall and tropical storm-force winds are becoming an increasing concern. A few tornadoes will also be possible in the rainbands. Models show a brief dry slot across the area Thu night/early Fri then a plume of deep moisture redevelops over the FL peninsula late Fri into the weekend long after the tropical system has departed. This would produce high rain chances and a continued threat for heavy rainfall, on ground that may be largely saturated. Offshore flow on Fri will produce hot temperatures in the lower 90s even at the coast with peak heat indices 104-108. Continued hot and humid this weekend with deep moisture supporting scattered storms and heat indices 100-105. Some drier air is forecast to move in Mon and lower rain chances. We are in peak hurricane season. Check weather.gov/mlb and hurricanes.gov for the latest updates, and take the time to check on your hurricane preparedness kits and plans. && .MARINE... Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Today...Weak surface high pressure continues to drift further into the western Atlc. Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight. Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape. Lower coverage of showers today as drier air filters down from the north. Seas 3-4 feet today-tonight building 4-5 ft Tue and up to 6 ft Tonight in the Gulf Stream Cape southward. Wed-Sat...Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 24 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25+ kts Wed overnight into Thu with seas building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and decrease 15-20 kts with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases below 15 knots and this will allow seas to fall below 5 feet offshore. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Another quiet TAF period. E breezes 5-11 KT through mid morning, then 8-14 KT with gusts to 15-20 KT in the afternoon. VFR conditions prevail; slight chance of showers relegated to SUA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 40 60 MCO 92 76 90 78 / 0 0 60 60 MLB 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 60 70 VRB 89 78 89 79 / 10 10 70 70 LEE 93 75 90 76 / 0 0 50 60 SFB 91 76 89 77 / 0 0 60 60 ORL 92 77 90 78 / 0 0 60 60 FPR 89 78 88 78 / 20 20 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Heil