Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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543 FXUS62 KMLB 230507 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Onshore-moving showers will continue to affect MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA overnight through the morning hours before shifting to only the Treasure Coast terminals by afternoon. Elsewhere, prevailing dry conditions and VFR. Light NNE winds steadily veer toward the E through the day. A few gusts 12-18 KT in the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Elevated Low level easterly flow and a band of low level moisture from near the Cape southward will continue to transport isolated to scattered showers onshore through the remainder of the night. Isolated storms will also be possible over the coastal waters, with one or two storms potentially pushing onshore, mainly south of Melbourne. Rain chances continue to range around 20-30 percent across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions forecast into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Model guidance continues to indicate greatest potential for any fog development across north Florida into late tonight. However, may see some patchy fog expand into areas northwest of I-4 through Lake and NW Volusia counties toward daybreak Monday. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the Cape that maintain an onshore wind. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night. .Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion... Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 75 90 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCO 91 74 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 MLB 89 78 89 79 / 20 0 10 10 VRB 89 76 90 78 / 30 10 20 20 LEE 92 73 93 76 / 0 0 10 0 SFB 91 73 91 76 / 10 0 10 0 ORL 92 75 92 76 / 10 0 10 0 FPR 89 76 89 78 / 30 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil