237
FXUS64 KMOB 270553
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds are diminishing
across the area. Northwesterly winds occasionally gusting to 20 to
25 knots at time (especially in exposed areas) for the next
several hours, becoming more westerly through the remainder of the
night and slightly southwesterly during the day on Friday. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

All convective bands associated with Hurricane Helene are
currently east of the western FL panhandle and southwest-south
central AL. As the hurricane lifts north some rainbands may work
into the FL panhandle and south central AL. Ceilings will be
mostly VFR, but some periods of MVFR to IFR possible over eastern
half of forecast area. No LLWS expected as deeper layer northerly
winds are occurring. Northwesterly to northerly winds at TAF
sites, gusting to 30 knots at times. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Synoptic Overview...Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show
the center of the mid/upper cutoff low in the vicinity of the
confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. Major Hurricane Helene
continues to look more impressive with deeper convection occurring
north of the center. The mid/upper low will move little into early
evening but is forecast to slowly pivot southward toward northern MS
late tonight into early Friday morning. Hurricane Helene will
meanwhile be steered northward toward the Florida Big Bend region
and will likely experience continued intensification before landfall.

Coastal Hazards...Significant long period swell packets will
continue to impact our beaches through Friday morning, with large
breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet occurring through the overnight hours.
A High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect
until 1 PM Friday, with minor coastal flooding leading up to the
occurrence of high tide early Friday morning, resulting in flooding
of lots, parks, and low lying roads, especially along the immediate
coastal sections due to the wave runup. In addition, a High Rip
Current Risk remains in effect through late Friday night. Everyone
should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf
conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside
infrastructure.

Wind Advisory...A tight pressure gradient and expanding wind field
on the western side of Helene will result in gusty winds across our
coastal portions and interior portions of south central AL. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect through midnight for central/southern
Mobile and Baldwin AL counties, Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and
counties in the western FL panhandle, and for Butler, Crenshaw, and
Covington in AL. Winds of 15-25 mph with potential gusts up to 40
mph are anticipated in the Wind Advisory area.

The fast forward motion will allow Helene to quickly lift into
Georgia tonight. The deeper moisture should lift to the north of our
area tonight with a drier airmass settling in place, so the ongoing
rain across our far eastern zones will taper off to our northeast by
late tonight. Dry conditions and improving coastal conditions will
follow through the remainder of the work week. /22

SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 pM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The combined remnants of Helene and an upper low that has been
meandering over the mid Mississippi River Valley the last 24-36hrs
meanders northeast to over the Ohio River Valley into Sunday,
weakening into a mean upper trough over the Eastern Conus. This
trough moves east over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley to over,
then east the East Coast by early Tuesday as upper level high
pressure moves over the Southern Plains. The forecast area remains
under dry (precipitable h20 values < 1.25"), but not appreciably
cooler northerly flow into Wednesday. Low level flow becomes more
variable the later half of the week as a surface ridge builds along
the East Coast. A surface boundary tries to work its way north
towards the northern Gulf the end of the week as another system
develops over the southern Caribbean and heads toward the Yucatan
Peninsula, but with a limit to the northward push, any rain is
expected to be south of the northern Gulf coast. The dry airmass and
mostly sunny days, along with increasing upper subsidence in the
coming week, will bring high temperatures rising to well above
seasonal norms. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday
and Sunday rise into the upper 80s to around 90 for the coming week.
Low temperatures Saturday night in the low to mid 60s north of I-10,
mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 to along the coast moderate upward
a bit into the coming week, but most of the forecast area sees low
temperatures in the 60s through the coming week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Major Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall cross
the Big Bend coast of Florida this evening. A Tropical Storm Warning
is in effect for the Florida 0-60 nm Gulf waters, the 20-60 nm
portion of the Alabama waters, and eastern Choctawhatchee Bay. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area.
Winds and seas subside on Friday. Please see the National Hurricane
Center for the latest on Helene. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  87  66  89  68  89  68  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   73  86  72  86  73  87  72  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10
Destin      74  86  74  86  73  86  73  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  10
Evergreen   63  87  63  89  65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  62  86  61  86  63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      64  83  62  85  63  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   64  87  66  88  66  88  67  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     GMZ630>635-650.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ636-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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