315
FXUS63 KMPX 270826
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
326 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible this morning with a few
stronger storms possible across far southern Minnesota this
afternoon.

- Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures
  with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late by the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A smidge chilly this morning as temperature obs have reached the
upper 40s for many areas. The northern plains is currently under a
troughing pattern with an embedded shortwave that is over the
Dakotas. Ahead of this low pressure, surface forcing has generated
some showers over western MN. This band of showers will continue to
make its way eastward. For a few hours around sunrise, some patchy
dense fog is possible across north central MN. The forecast today
features a chance of showers and storms and temperatures in the 60s.
The aforementioned line of precip over western MN will continue
eastward and mainly be a nuisance for areas along and west of I-35
before noon. During the afternoon hours, the line of rainfall will
transition to more scattered coverage along with some redevelopment
back across west-central MN as the core of the low reaches southwest
MN. The convective environment does support some potential for
storms storms mainly across the I-90 corridor. CAPE within the mixed
layer looks to reach between 500-1000 J/kg coupled with cool air
aloft with a drier surface layer, could produce a few damaging wind
gusts in the more organized storms. Storm total QPF for today should
equate in the range between a quarter to a half inch.

On Tuesday, upper-level troughing begins to depart east while
ridging builds in the west. A secondary shortwave develops over
Alberta and heads south over MN/WI. Although this system in
particular does look much more disorganized as compared to today`s
wave. Therefore, keeping only a few hundredths of accumulation at
best for Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday and Thursday
which will set us up for a couple of nice days with highs ranging in
the 70s. H85 thermal ridging looks to be quite extensive over the
Rockies however, a shortwave to our east dives over the Great Lakes
and acts as a defensive line to keep even warmer temps well to our
west. This weekend still look to feature a broad troughing pattern
with a series of shortwaves that support the continuation of
mentioning low PoPs through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to start for all sites. Mid-level ceilings are gradually
approaching from the Dakotas and will move across all TAF sites
by late this morning, sooner obviously over western MN. The
arrival of a clipper-type low will produce fairly widespread
rain later this morning then more scattered activity into the
afternoon hours. It is with this latter activity that CB/TS
looks to be more prevalent as the system takes advantage of weak
instability in peak heating. Thus, have opted to convert the
recently-added PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups as confidence is a
bit higher for this set to have CB/TS realized. Conditions will
improve late afternoon into the evening as the system exits,
including the lack of ceilings this evening into tonight. Winds
will be fairly variable at around 5 kts then eventually become
NE and breezy as the low pressure circulation moves across the
east of the TAF sites.

KMSP...Rain showers look to move into MSP late this morning,
though there is a small chance of seeing spotty showers between
12z-15z, earlier than currently advertised. Best chances for
CB/TS come early-mid this afternoon with the potential for MVFR
conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC