870
FXUS63 KMPX 271728
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High in the 80s through Monday. September of 2024 will be the
  warmest and driest on record in the Twin Cities.

- A dry cold front will pass on Monday, bringing elevated fire
  weather conditions as gusty southwesterly winds become
  northwesterly.

- A brief shot of cool air expected Tuesday before temperatures
  warm to near normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The only weather of concern through Monday morning will be the good
possibility of patchy fog in our west-central WI and rural eastern
MN counties each morning. This fog could be dense at times,
particularly near EAU where visibilities could drop to a mile or
less. However, no headlines are warranted at this time and the fog
should burn off soon after sunrise. Sunny skies and light winds are
expected through Sunday. Given how temperatures overachieved
yesterday, have slightly increased highs for today and Saturday.
Today will reach the low to mid 80s while Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Sunday and Monday`s highs will be similar to
Friday`s while lows each night will drop into the 50s.

Guidance favors a trough and accompanying cold front arriving later
Monday. Should this occur and MSP reaches its current forecast
highs, Monday would be the 19th day this September with an 80 degree
or warmer temperature in the Twin Cities. This would break the old
monthly record of 18 days set back in 1908. QPF and forecast
soundings show that the cold frontal passage will be dry across the
MPX CWA with precip chances remaining well to our north. Of greater
confidence will be cooler, drier northwesterly flow following the
front Monday evening through Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday are
forecast in the low to mid 60s while Wednesday morning lows should
drop into the mid to lower 40s. Even a few upper 30s are possible in
our northeastern CWA counties. Breezier winds with RH values below
35 percent each afternoon through mid-week will also make elevated
fire weather conditions possible, especially in western MN. For the
remainder of next week, rainfall chances continue to look very slim
while temperatures hover within a few degrees of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Clear skies expected throughout this duration with light
northerly winds. Only wrinkle will be ground fog near EAU once
again prior to sunrise Saturday morning, potentially reducing
visibility to IFR levels for a couple/few hours.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts becoming W.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC