Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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323 FXUS63 KMQT 261731 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 131 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected into Monday, but rain chances resume late Monday when the next trough enters the Great Lakes Region. - Temperatures trend well above normal into next week, but a rapid dip in temperatures is on track for Tuesday with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The quiet weather continues today as a mid level ridge currently over the Dakotas shifts east toward the Western Great Lakes and a ~1017mb sfc high meanders northeast over the Great Lakes. Nighttime RGB satellite imagery highlights some scattered ~6kft clouds over the central UP, but otherwise clear skies prevail across the region. Temps under these clear skies have generally settled into the mid 40s in the interior and upper 40s to mid 50s by the lakeshores. With temps reaching dewpoints and not much of any wind, some patchy fog has been observed, particularly in central Upper MI. This fog will continue through around an hour after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies and dry weather is expected through this afternoon. With 925mb temps around 18-20C, above normal temps continue. Some lake breezes off both Great Lakes should moderate temps in the low to mid 70s by the lakeshores, but highs in the interior will peak in the mid to upper 70s. It is not out of the question for some spots in the interior west to hit 80 as noted in some of the MOS guidance. Otherwise, winds remain light around 5 to 10 mph. All in all, today should be a nice fall day! && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 417 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Early in the extended period, Upper Michigan will remain under the influence of strong ridging. However, changes in the synoptic setup include a shift in the mid-level troughing to eastern Canada and the phasing of Hurricane Helene with a closed low over the western Tennessee Valley. Farther west, the upper air pattern becomes more zonal over the central CONUS, while a trough enters the Pacific Northwest. Therefore, the main focus through the weekend and into next week continues to be the above normal temperatures and the fluctuation between summer and fall conditions around this time of year. The bulk of the dynamics from Hurricane Helene will remain to the southeast of Upper Michigan. So, daily high temperatures will generally be in the 70s and even near the 80 degree mark on Friday and Saturday in the southerly surface flow. Meanwhile, overnight lows will continue to dodge the freezing mark with widespread 40s/low 50s through Monday night. By Tuesday, however, long range ensemble models trend toward an abrupt shift back to Fall as high temperatures struggle to even reach 60 degrees. And, overnight lows will dip back into the upper 30s and even mid 30s across the interior west. The shift in temperatures mentioned above will be attributed to the next trough, progged to enter the upper Great Lakes on Monday night. This disturbance will shift the ridge axis farther eastward and bring an associated cold front with it that will be responsible for the rapid temperature change. In addition, this will be the next chance for rain showers. And, due to decent consistency in the operational models and associated ensemble means, will continue to lean toward 30-50% pops from Monday night through Tuesday night. Past that, inconsistency increases in the 20% pops (north and east) for Wednesday and Thursday as models struggle to acknowledge weak ridging. Also of note, radiational fog formation will be prevalent during the early mornings throughout the first half of the extended period under the mostly clear skies and light winds. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will result in mainly VFR conditions at the TAF sites along with light winds. Similar to the past couple of nights patchy fog will develop at KSAW and KIWD in the 09Z-12Z window reducing visibilities to IFR. The fog will dissipate by 13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Upper Michigan will remain under high pressure for most of the forecast period. Therefore, winds will remain at or below 20 knots into Monday. However, winds will quickly increase to 20 to 30 knots late Monday and will persistently stay there through Wednesday. There will be some variation in wind direction from southwest to northwest late Monday, then back to southwest again Tuesday night. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jablonski LONG TERM...TDUD AVIATION...MZ MARINE...TDUD