707
FXUS63 KMQT 270738
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
338 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected into Monday, but rain chances resume
  Monday night when the next trough enters the Great Lakes region.

- Temperatures trend well above normal into next week, but a drop
  in temperatures for Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Today is shaping up to be a repeat of Thursday, but warmer temps are
expected. Mid-level ridging currently centered over Lake Superior
flattens out today, but maintains over the Upper Great Lakes. At the
sfc, 1014mb high pressure remains over the UP as remnants of
Hurricane Helene quickly swings around to near the corner of
IL/IN/KY. Through around sunrise, patchy fog continues as temps
settle into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Webcams and sfc obs have already
observed some dense fog in Schoolcraft County and in the Keweenaw
near Houghton. Additional patchy fog developing over northern WI may
expand into interior western Upper MI over the next 2-4 hours and
could be dense at times as well. Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions
continue.

Some high clouds from the remnants of Hurricane Helene may make it
to the south and southeastern portions of the UP today, but plenty
of sunshine and dry weather is expected. With 925mb temps at 18-20C,
above normal highs peak in the 70s to low 80s. Again, lake breezes
will try to moderate temps near the lakeshores in the mid 70s. While
mixing in the interior may result in RHs dropping near 30 in the
interior west, winds are not expected to exceed 10 mph, so there are
no fire weather concerns today. In other words: today will be
another nice and warm fall weather day to close out the work week!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the Tennessee
River Valley and southern Appalachians with a ridge over the
southern and Central Rockies and a ridge over the upper Great Lakes
00z Sat which remains that way through 00z Mon. Dry and warm weather
will continue through the forecast period.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb shortwave over the
Appalachians and a trough over the northern Rockies 12z Mon with
ridging in the upper Great Lakes and across the southern Rockies.
The northern trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and
into New England by 12z Wed. Troughing then moves into the northern
plains 12z Thu. Temperatures will go from above normal on Monday to
near normal for Tuesday through Thursday. Next chance for pcpn
arrives Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will result in mainly VFR
conditions at the TAF sites along with light winds. Similar to the
past couple of nights patchy fog will develop at KSAW and KIWD in
the 09Z-12Z window overnight reducing visibilities to IFR. The
fog will dissipate by 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The area will remain under high pressure for most of this forecast
period. Winds will remain at or below 20 knots into Monday. However,
winds will quickly increase to 20 to 30 knots late Monday and will
persistently stay there through Wednesday. There will be some
variation in wind direction from southwest to northwest late Monday,
then back to southwest again Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07