836
FXUS63 KMQT 261831
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
231 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected into Monday, but rain chances resume
  Monday night when the next trough enters the Great Lakes region.

- Temperatures trend well above normal into next week, but a drop
  in temperatures for Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Surface/upper ridging will remain across the Upper Great Lakes into
the eastern Great Lakes through Friday. Forecast should be one of
persistence going into the weekend. Went on lowest end of guidance
for overnight lows tonight similar to last nights readings.  Once
again expect patchy radiational fog to develop but that should
quickly burn off by mid morning Friday. High temperatures for Friday
will be well above normal again in the upper 70s to around
80...slightly cooler by the Lakes. Our record high for Friday is 79.
We will probably come up a degree or two short of tying it.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the Tennessee
River Valley and southern Appalachians with a ridge over the
southern and Central Rockies and a ridge over the upper Great Lakes
00z Sat which remains that way through 00z Mon. Dry and warm weather
will continue through the forecast period.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb shortwave over the
Appalachians and a trough over the northern Rockies 12z Mon with
ridging in the upper Great Lakes and across the southern Rockies.
The northern trough moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue and
into New England by 12z Wed. Troughing then moves into the northern
plains 12z Thu. Temperatures will go from above normal on Monday to
near normal for Tuesday through Thursday. Next chance for pcpn
arrives Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will result in mainly VFR
conditions at the TAF sites along with light winds. Similar to the
past couple of nights patchy fog will develop at KSAW and KIWD in the
09Z-12Z window reducing visibilities to IFR.  The fog will dissipate
by 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The area will remain under high pressure for most of this forecast
period. Winds will remain at or below 20 knots into Monday. However,
winds will quickly increase to 20 to 30 knots late Monday and will
persistently stay there through Wednesday. There will be some
variation in wind direction from southwest to northwest late Monday,
then back to southwest again Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...07