Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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373 FXUS63 KMQT 240532 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 132 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night in the eastern U.P., dry weather is expected this upcoming week with a trend toward much above normal temps again late in the week. - Patchy frost is possible (~20%) for typical cold spots of interior western Upper Michigan Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Apart from some fair weather cumulus developing across the western half of the UP, skies remain sunny with weak ridging in place over the Great Lakes. Temperatures hover in the lower 60s so far, and should be able to climb a little higher into the mid and possibly upper 60s across most of the UP this afternoon. Tonight, our ridge breaks down as a couple features of interest move towards the area. The first is a shortwave currently tracking into the mid-Mississippi valley. This heads into the Lower Great Lakes tonight, while another surface low currently moving into Manitoba tracks through Ontario. None of these are expected to track close enough to the UP to bring in any rain chances tonight, but a resulting shift to southerly flow will help to touch off weak WAA. Expect 850mb temperatures to climb to near 8C by early Tuesday morning. This, in addition to increasing mid/upper level cloud cover should help to keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. Still, much of the interior UP should be able to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s, while some of the typically cooler spots (throughout the interior-west and north-central UP) fall further into the mid 30s. Will not rule out some patchy frost yet again. Patchy fog will also be possible with light southerly winds over the land tonight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the western U.S. and a trough in the mid and lower Missouri River Valley and upper Mississippi Valley into the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. The ridging moves into the Rockies and troughing into the upper Great Lakes 12z Wed. This ridge moves into the northern plains 00z Thu and into the upper Great Lakes 00z Fri. There will some some low chance pops late Tue afternoon into Tue night for the eastern cwa with glancing blow from system to the south and east of the area, otherwise it will be dry. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb low over the lower Mississippi Valley and a broad ridge across the Rockies into the plains 12z Fri with a ridge over the upper Great Lakes. The closed low moves to the mid Mississippi Valley with ridging still in the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat through 12z Mon. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast period. Looks dry and NBM appears to generous with pops considering we are under a strong ridge aloft with no sfc fronts in the area and also remains of tropical system well to the south. Capped pops at 14 for days 5 through 7 and would not be surprised to see some clouds at best during that time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF period with ridging over the region. Midlevel cloud cover fills in late tonight into Tuesday morning as a shortwave trough moves through the Lower Midwest. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The wind will stay at or below 20 knots for the whole period which is very unusual for this time of year. High pressure will remain in control of the area and continue to bring benign weather. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Voss MARINE...07