Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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519 FXUS66 KMTR 171732 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1032 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Quiet weather persists. Widespread stratus coverage dissipating by mid to late morning with breezy, clear conditions developing by the afternoon. Heading into the weekend, stratus coverage will be diminished with stratus primarily confined to coastal regions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Light drizzle has been reported over the region this morning with amounts up to 0.02" across the North Bay, San Francisco Peninsula, Santa Cruz, and around the Monterey Bay region. Given the deep marine layer in place, temperatures will struggle to reach into the 80`s with only places such as the far interior Salinas Valley and North Bay Valleys hitting that mark. Otherwise, low clouds will retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning giving way to mostly sunny sky conditions this afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on track with no updates anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Widespread stratus has returned. Current observations show no major impacts to visibility inland with a few stations reporting reduced visibilities directly along the coast. The marine layer has continued to deepen with the Ford Ord Coastal Profiler showing the top of the marine layer at ~3000 ft. Expect light drizzle overnight in coastal areas with little to no accumulation anticipated - any drizzle that does accumulate will be less than a few hundredths of an inch. Inland s stratus coverage will dissipate by mid-morning with temperatures warming into the 70`s. Along the coast, stratus coverage will linger through the late morning/early afternoon with temperatures staying on the cooler side in the upper 50`s to low 60`s. Friday night - inland stratus intrusions are expected to be minimal with stratus primarily confined along the coast as the marine layer continues to deepen. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Heading into the late weekend, the 500mb pattern shows a transition from upper level zonal flow to troughing as a surface low pressure system moves northeast of the Bay Area. This will enable the developing deeper marine layer to persist through the week and limit stratus intrusions to coastal regions. A slight inland warming trend develops throughout the early work week as decreased morning cloud coverage will lead to increased surface warming. Inland high temperatures will largely stay in the mid to upper 70`s with the warmest regions reaching the low 80`s. No major changes to coastal temperatures with stratus coverage limiting surface warming and keeping temperatures in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s. Minor heat risk is possible Monday and Tuesday across inland portions of the Bay Area and Salinas Valley. For individuals sensitive to heat, remember to take breaks when outdoors and drink plenty of water. Otherwise, this weekends weather looks warm and pleasant so take advantage and enjoy it! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Satellite shows the stratus remains pretty socked in for most terminals, with slow retreat back to the coast. Therefore, a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the terminals. Conditions should improve between 18-19Z for most terminals. Models show some disagreement on stratus return tonight. Moderate confidence that KSTS, KAPC, KMRY and KSNS will see anywhere between MVFR-IFR conditions, as the remainder terminals may only see VFR, borderline MVFR conditions tonight. A SCT group is included in KOAK, KSFO, KSJC, and KLVK to hint at the possibility of low stratus. Winds will become relatively breezy in the afternoon, but will return to light to moderate this evening. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with light SE winds but winds will start to build to breezy and turn onshore by the afternoon. Models hint at MVFR conditions returning overnight, but had low confidence to include in TAFs at this moment. Winds become light to moderate overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR, with ceilings continuing to lift. Expect VFR between 19-20Z. High confidence that low ceilings will return tonight to MVFR criteria, with possible IFR conditions throughout the night. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon and return to light to moderate tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 849 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024 Northwesterly winds continue to increase through the day, particularly over the northernmost zones with gale-force gusts expected in the northern outer waters. Gale-force winds start to move closer to some of the southern zones into the weekend. Rougher seas are expected for the outer waters starting this weekend and lasting well into the next work week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea