857
FXUS66 KMTR 250834
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
134 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Cool with abundant overnight stratus through the weekend. Warming
and drying trend set for next week with temperatures around
seasonal normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Deep, moist marine layer this morning allowing for stratus to push
well inland. Additionally, a weak passing trough has provided
just enough lift to bring drizzle to areas along the coast and in
the hills. Several locations along the SF Peninsula, East Bay
hills, and Central Coast have actually measured a few hundredths
of an inch here and there as a result. Skies will gradually clear
inland today with some coastal locations remaining in the clouds.
Another cool day with afternoon highs similar to yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1259 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024

Warming and drying trend starts Sunday into the middle of next
week as a broad ridge builds across the West Coast. Afternoon
highs expected to be near seasonal normals by mid-to-late week.
Typical onshore flow pattern persists with overnight and morning
clouds clearing back to the shoreline each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Most of the region has cleared out, but MVFR stratus continues over
the SF Bay terminals and the area around MRY. Not expecting any
clearing for those terminals for the rest of the day; if they do
clear out, it will be short-lived and transitory. Breezy
northwesterly winds will continue into the evening, diminishing at
night before resuming Saturday afternoon. High confidence in further
stratus development across the region this evening, except at the
North Bay terminals where confidence is moderate. Along the coast,
and in the SF Bay and Monterey Bay regions, ceilings are expected to
decrease to IFR-LIFR. Stratus mixes out late Saturday morning with
breezy northwest flow resuming in the afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus continues through the day. Strong
west winds gusting to 30 gusts will continue through the evening. At
this time, low confidence that winds will gust above 35 knots. Will
monitor evolution of winds throughout the day and will amend TAF if
necessary. High confidence of MVFR or marginal IFR stratus at the
terminal area tonight, clearing late Saturday morning with strong
west winds Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MRY should expect MVFR ceilings through
the day, with some greater uncertainty at SNS although continuing
ceilings are also favored there. Breezy and gusty northwest winds
continue through the evening. Overnight, ceilings drop to the IFR-
LIFR level across the region. Clearing time is expected late
Saturday morning at SNS, and a moderate confidence that MRY clears
out at a similar time as well, although some model output keeps
ceilings through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 926 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

Mainly gusty northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters
over Memorial Day weekend and to the middle of next week. Afternoon
and evening onshore winds will also become breezy to gusty over the
bays during the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...Canepa

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