271
FXUS66 KMTR 221928
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1228 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are
forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper
level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday
through the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

With the weakening of the offshore flow and the broad upper level
trough continuing to influence our area, temperatures are trending
down towards a cooler side (by 2-3 degrees lower than yesterday)
going into the evening and night hours. Minimum temperatures are
forecasted to reach between mid 40s to low 50s across the region.
Maximum temperatures for Thursday will see between high 70s to low
80s for inland areas, and high 50s to 60s along the coast. Although
temperatures will start to decrease, temperatures will still be
relatively warm. So for those sensitive to heat, be sure to hydrate
if you plan to go out!

The marine layer continues to deepen with the coastal profilers
showing up to 1,500-1,700 feet at Ft. Ord. With the deepening marine
layer and a increase in onshore flow, Thursday will see some higher
relative humidity values and increase of moist air inland. As a
result, expect another round of "May Grey" Thursday morning for the
coastal areas, especially near Monterey Bay, Salinas Valley, and
coastal areas south of San Francisco.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

With the deep marine layer and upper level trough moving south into
our area and becoming more prominent later in the week, expect a
continuation of cool down to below normal temperatures by the
weekend. Maximum temperatures for Friday into Saturday will see low
70s and range of 60s inland, with mid 50s to low 60s along the
coast. Sunday into Tuesday, a weak ridging pattern takes a bit
influence over our area, which will bring back some warmer
temperatures with interior areas seeing max temperatures in the mid
70s to low 80s, with the coast increasing up high 50s to mid 60s.
Overnight temperatures will be relatively the same through the
forecast period, with mid 40s to low 50s across the area. High
resolution ensemble models continue to hint at possible drizzle
for the weekend along the coast, with a 10-15% chance that
measurable amounts (<.01 of an inch) will occur. If precipitation
do occur, impacts will be minimal to none.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024

With the exception of the Monterey Bay terminals of MRY and SNS
which are still under the influence of the Otter Eddy, currently
VFR at all terminals with stratus hugging a majority of the West
Coast. Moderate-high confidence of VFR through the TAF period at
all terminals with the exception of the Monterey Bay terminals of
MRY and SNS. While below the low level wind shear threshold, it
will likely be bumpy getting out of the North Bay terminals of APC
and STS tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy northwesterly flow. VFR
through the TAF period. Winds will transition to become westerly
with gusts up to 25 knots to be expected this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with westerly flow at MRY and
MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS as both terminals are still
under the influence of the Otter Eddy. Stratus has already begun
eroding inland with both terminals expected to return to VFR
by 20Z. Moderate-high confidence that IFR stratus will return to
both terminals tonight. Winds will remain breezy out of the west
through the TAF period with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots to be
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1021 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will
continue to allow for strong northwesterly winds to prevail
through Thursday, with gale force gusts across the outer coastal
waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves during
the week. Winds diminish heading into the weekend as surface high
pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean weakens and retrogrades to
the west.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea