530
FXUS66 KMTR 232337
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
437 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024

Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are
forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper
level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday
through the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

The sun is shining over our area, as satellite shows clear skies
over our area. Soundings show that there has been some drier air
that moved over our region and helped diminish the marine clouds.
Some patches of clouds are expected to return tonight near the Bay
Area, with moments of lower clouds near Monterey Bay and Salinas
similar to this morning. Minimum temperatures tonight will drop
overall in the 40s with isolated areas of low 50s. Maximum
temperatures will drop significantly compared to today (between
5-8 degree drop). Inland areas will see within the 60s with higher
elevations seeing up to low to mid 70s. Coastal areas will see
temperatures in the 50s. Minimum relative humidity will also
increase on Friday, indicating some moisture will be pulled in
from the onshore breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

The low pressure system centered over Washington and Oregon, will
continue to dip south a bit, which will enhance and influence some
of the cooling trend over our area. Ensemble models still
indicate that temperatures will drop to cooler than normal high
temperatures with majority of our region seeing high 50s to low to
mid 60s on Saturday. Temperatures overnight will remain
relatively consistent through the weekend with minimum
temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Tuesday night may start to see
a slight warm up in overnight temperatures with minimums in the
50s across most of the area. Cluster models also have been in
somewhat of an agreement of precipitation Friday going into
Saturday as some onshore flow pushes some of the marine moisture
near the coast. Chances for precipitation will be 5-10% for less
than a tenth of a inch along the coast, which will likely be in
the form of drizzle and will cause little to no impacts.

As the trough moves off to the east, the ECMWF and GFS show
agreement of a broad, weak ridge beginning to build on Sunday into
Monday. This will bring some warmer temperatures for the week,
especially in the interior regions, with max temperatures in the
high 70s and low 80s. With this weak upper level pattern change,
models do not show a strong offshore signal, which will allow for a
onshore breezy to continue. This will cause coastal regions to only
warm up a bit, with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR except stratus /MVFR/ redeveloping late tonight and Friday
morning from the SF Peninsula and the South Bay to the Monterey
Bay terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR, gusty west wind and hazy through early
to mid evening. West wind easing later tonight and Friday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR, west to northwest winds through
the period. MVFR stratus returns to the terminals overnight. Winds
will remain breezy out of the west through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 427 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024

Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will
allow for strong northwesterly winds to prevail through today,
with gale force gusts across the outer coastal waters. Expect
hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves as a result.
Northwesterly winds diminish and significant wave heights abate
beginning tomorrow as surface high pressure over the Eastern
Pacific Ocean weakens and retrogrades to the west and a troughing
pattern evolves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Sarment

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