133
FXUS64 KOHX 251124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A cluster of showers and storms have developed over the last hour
just west of I-65. There is ample elevated instability with values
generally between 1500-2000 J/kg. A couple instances of sub
severe hail will be possible with this cluster. Additional
activity may move in from the west closer to dawn. Again, some sub
severe hail may be possible. CAMS have the overnight activity
lingering into the morning with a break as we go into the
afternoon. A few scattered showers and storms may develop late in
the afternoon. Afternoon instability values will be in the
1500-2000 J/kg with around 25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. A storm or
two may be strong with gusty winds and some hail.

Sunday continues to be our main focus in regards to severe
weather. CAMS show the potential for some activity during the
morning into the afternoon from the remnants of Saturday`s
activity from the plains. A wind threat could be possible with any
of that activity. The primary concern, however, is during the
evening into the early overnight hours. Storms are expected to
develop west of the area and move into Middle Tennessee as an MCS.
The environment ahead of those storms will be volatile with the
HREF showing median SBCAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg at 00z
Monday. Mid level lapse rates will likely be around or in excess
of 7.5 C/km. Effective bulk shear will be in the 40-50 kt range.
With that said, all hazards will be possible. Damaging winds will
be the greatest threat, but some instances of severe hail will be
possible along with some embedded circulations. Some instances of
flash flooding will be possible as well given the saturated
grounds in the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Some showers and storms will linger into Memorial Day as the
surface front slowly moves through the area. We finally get a
break from this active period starting on Tuesday as a large
trough sinks out of Canada into the Great Lakes region. Locally,
we`ll have a drier airmass with northerly flow. This will
translate to a few pretty nice days for late May. Highs on
Wednesday could touch 80 in a few spots, otherwise the area will
see highs in the mid to upper 70s. The mornings will be noticeably
cooler as well. Lows Thursday morning and Friday morning will be
in the 50s. The large scale troughing will move east by Friday
with upper ridging building into the area. Temperatures will
respond with highs climbing into the low 80s on Friday and likely
mid 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Ongoing storms will continue to bring lower cigs and vis to
MVFR/IFR levels during impact. The current line of storms will
continue slowly moving east-southeast through the morning. For the
afternoon, VFR conditions should return, but widely scattered
pop-up thunderstorms are possible. Went ahead and included VCTS
at all sites through the afternoon to account for this. Behind the
line of storms, winds will generally be out of the west around
5kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  69  89  72 /  40  30  50  90
Clarksville    83  68  89  70 /  30  20  50  90
Crossville     80  62  82  64 /  70  30  30  90
Columbia       85  67  89  68 /  50  30  40  90
Cookeville     81  65  84  66 /  50  30  40  90
Jamestown      81  63  83  65 /  50  20  50  90
Lawrenceburg   85  68  88  68 /  60  30  40  90
Murfreesboro   85  66  89  68 /  40  40  40  90
Waverly        85  68  89  68 /  30  20  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett