Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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301 FXUS64 KOHX 211747 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday, especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and- miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and less than a tenth of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about 60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions to prevail through 22/18Z. Variability in wind direction possible, some patchy fog possible with a better chance of showers and possible storms for locations across at least southern portions of mid state region 22/12Z-22/18Z, confidence in these developments are not high enough to mention in either prevailing or temporarily groupings at mid state terminal sites and believe further set of model runs & associated meteorological interpretation is needed before mentioning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 93 71 91 / 10 20 20 30 Clarksville 71 91 69 89 / 20 30 20 40 Crossville 63 86 64 85 / 10 20 30 50 Columbia 69 92 68 92 / 10 20 10 20 Cookeville 66 88 67 87 / 10 20 20 40 Jamestown 65 86 66 84 / 0 30 30 60 Lawrenceburg 68 92 68 91 / 10 10 10 20 Murfreesboro 69 93 69 93 / 20 20 20 30 Waverly 69 91 69 89 / 20 20 20 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....JB Wright