Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
261 FXUS64 KOHX 211651 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1151 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s. But with the center of this high well to our south and an embedded shortwave rounding the periphery of the high, isolated showers are possible through this afternoon and then again on Sunday, especially near the TN/KY border. Any showers will be hit-and- miss, and with our dry atmosphere, any rainfall will be light and less than a tenth of an inch. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The high to our south gets suppressed starting Monday as a trough tracks through the Plains. This will increase our rain chances Monday, but best rain chances of the week so far look to be on Tuesday as a weak cold front tracks through the area. But before you get excited, rain amounts are still underwhelming and generally less than a quarter of an inch through Tuesday. But good news is that temperatures will fall behind the front and feel more seasonable with highs falling in the upper-70s to mid-80s. Models diverge significantly Wednesday and beyond, and confidence is very low regarding the forecast from here. Model solutions are generally in two different camps. The deterministic GFS as well as its ensemble members show a deep trough extending from the Great Lakes region. But the ENS and GEPS ensemble members are favoring more of a ridging pattern. The GFS`s solution favors a wetter pattern while the other favors a drier pattern. Unfortunately, the drier pattern looks to be more likely at this point with about 60% of ensemble members favoring the ridging. But have continued the low precipitation chances (15 to 25 percent) Wednesday and beyond to account for this uncertainty. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 For BNA...a few showers are trying to approach from the northwest, but they are weakening and unlikely to reach the terminal. Otherwise, anticipate some high cirrus throughout the day with light west/southwest winds. For all other TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Little to no fog has formed so the window of potential fog impacts as closed. Light west/southwest winds are forecast during the day today, dropping off once again this evening. A shower/storm approached KCKV earlier, but those have since weakened and diminished with no additional activity currently moving toward the site. All other sites should remain precipitation free. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 72 93 71 / 20 10 20 20 Clarksville 92 71 91 69 / 20 20 30 20 Crossville 88 63 86 64 / 10 10 20 30 Columbia 92 69 92 68 / 10 10 20 10 Cookeville 89 66 88 67 / 10 10 20 20 Jamestown 87 65 86 66 / 10 0 30 30 Lawrenceburg 92 68 92 68 / 10 10 10 10 Murfreesboro 94 69 93 69 / 10 20 20 20 Waverly 90 69 91 69 / 20 20 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Husted