Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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002 FXUS64 KOHX 210619 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 119 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 After a hot day on Friday temperatures are mild for mid September with 60s and even a couple stations still in the 70s at this hour. Some patchy fog will be possible near dawn again this morning. The ridge is in charge this weekend with another hot and dry day in store today. Highs will be very similar to yesterday with many of us topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Sunday will be another hot one but maybe a couple degrees cooler as the ridge begins to flatten out. With the ridging influences being slightly less pronounced and increasing humidity, an isolated storm near the TN/KY border or along the Tennessee River cannot be completely ruled out. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Rain chances will increase Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave ejects out of the central plains towards the Midwest. A couple scattered storms will be possible on Monday but the better rain chances will be Tuesday as a weak cold front traverses our area. QPF with this front looks underwhelming given our ongoing drought. Generally speaking, QPF will be 0.25" or less. Temperatures will fall back closer to normal for late September behind the front with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows falling into the 50s and 60s. Behind the early week shortwave, models diverge regarding the upper level flow with some digging a deeper trough through the area midweek (mainly GEFS members) while more ENS members want to cut off the energy well west of our area. The first solution would bring some more rain chances to the area while the second solution would see a return of dry conditions. For now, slight chance PoPs will be carried until some more agreement is seen. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 At BNA...VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Calm winds will give way to light west/southwest winds during the afternoon. Only cloud cover will be high level cirrus moving in from the northwest. For all other TAF sites...VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. The one potential issue will be fog this morning, but based on current trends and temp/dewpoint spreads, only felt confident enough to put fog in the TAF for KSRB. Issued a TAF with MVFR vis at KSRB, and VFR at all other sites. Will be monitoring for fog development. Calm winds overnight will give way to light west/southwest winds by late morning into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 10 Clarksville 92 70 91 69 / 20 10 20 20 Crossville 88 63 88 63 / 10 0 10 10 Columbia 93 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 Cookeville 89 66 89 67 / 10 10 10 10 Jamestown 87 65 87 66 / 10 0 20 10 Lawrenceburg 93 68 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 Murfreesboro 94 69 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 Waverly 91 69 91 69 / 10 10 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Husted