Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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054 FXUS66 KOTX 240447 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 947 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will deliver above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A more active pattern is expected toward midweek and beyond, with the potential for breezy conditions and showers. Temperatures return to near normal by Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Tuesday: A ridge will remain over place for the period. The warm, dry conditions are expected through the most of Tuesday. A trough will begin to press into the Pacific Northwest with weak precip chances and clouds increasing over the Northern Cascades. Temperatures are expected to be still be much above normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Wednesday: The ridge slides East as the trough continues to press into the region. Ensemble agreement has come in better alignment on the timing of the Passage. It is currently timed for late afternoon. The late timing will allow Wednesday to be nearly as warm as Tuesday. The trough will slowly increase the clouds through the day. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of moisture associated with the trough. Precip amounts with the system are expected to be little to no accumulation. Models do indicate weak A concern with the system is the winds with the front passage. While humidities are not expected to be near critical, the sustained winds near 20 and gust near 40 mph lead to heightened fire concerns across the Basin. Areas of blowing dust could also occur due to recent field work. Thursday through Monday: The region will be under a cooler, zonal flow pattern behind the front. Winds will subside fro Thursday before another weaker trough passes on Friday. Winds will increase into the teens with gusts near 30 mph Friday afternoon. Temperatures will dip through the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Scattered high, thin clouds are advertised by the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) through the day Tuesday and into the evening. The majority of these clouds will be at or above 20 thousand feet. Winds will generally 10 mph or less. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at all TAF sites. /GKoch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 51 86 59 85 47 70 / 0 0 0 20 50 0 Coeur d`Alene 51 83 57 83 48 68 / 0 0 0 10 60 0 Pullman 50 83 56 83 45 68 / 0 0 0 20 60 0 Lewiston 56 90 63 90 56 76 / 0 0 0 10 60 0 Colville 43 83 46 83 36 68 / 0 0 0 30 50 0 Sandpoint 47 78 53 79 46 66 / 0 0 0 20 60 10 Kellogg 54 81 61 81 50 65 / 0 0 0 20 70 10 Moses Lake 54 86 56 85 43 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Wenatchee 61 85 61 80 48 71 / 0 0 0 30 20 0 Omak 56 87 58 84 43 71 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$