Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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902 FXUS64 KOUN 221129 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Showers and storms continue marching southeast through Monday morning. Hazards include a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and localized flooding. - Below average temperatures this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A cold front will push through the forecast area today, bringing widespread showers and storms along with it. There is a marginal risk for severe storms (main hazards: damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and heavy rain) along a broad area roughly centered on the I-44 corridor late this morning through early evening. Concerning heavy rain, PWATs of 1.5-2 inches combined with steering flow roughly parallel to the front give some concern for training storms and localized flooding. However, the recent lack of recent rainfall sets the bar high for 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance (2.5 to 4 inches). HREF guidance suggest southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will see the highest QPF totals, with 3-hr 1 inch exceedance probabilities in the 50-70% range. Rain chances will linger overnight, decreasing and shifting southeast. Much cooler temperatures will fill in the wake of the cold front, yielding a tight temperature gradient with highs in the 60s in northwest Oklahoma to the lower 90s in south central Oklahoma today. Uncertainty is highest along and surrounding the I-44 corridor with NBM interquartile ranges of 6 to 7 degrees. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s in northwest Oklahoma. Day && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 201 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Rain chances diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as the front pushes further south of the area. Cooler temperatures are expected to stick around for much of the coming week, with highs 5- 10 degrees below average for this time of year (highs in the 70s and 80s) as a trough remains over the central US. As shortwave energy digs across the central plains and attempts to form another cutoff low, parts of the area could see additional chances for showers and storms. However, models still show significant disagreement on the track of this next system and uncertainty is higher than normal at this range. This system may then linger in the vicinity late next week, maintaining cooler temperatures and potentially more rain chances for parts of the area. Day/Ware && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Intervals of lowered category are expected at all terminals through the period. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today and tonight, with highest coverage expected along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor. Lowered vis/cig would be expected should direct impact to a terminal occur. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible near thunderstorms during the daytime. Otherwise, a more notable frontal intrusion will occur through the day today (from northwest-to-southeast). In addition to a period of gusty north/northwest winds, post-frontal stratus is likely to emerge (MVFR-to-IFR cigs). Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 56 72 55 / 80 70 20 0 Hobart OK 78 54 76 53 / 90 60 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 88 59 78 58 / 60 80 20 10 Gage OK 68 47 73 50 / 70 10 0 10 Ponca City OK 76 56 72 51 / 70 60 10 0 Durant OK 94 64 79 59 / 10 30 60 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...34