060
FXUS64 KOUN 270355
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

- Seasonable and dry weather is expected through the weekend.

- A cold front is expected early next week, though impactful
   weather is not currently anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Clear skies are expected again tonight as the primary circulation +
outflow channels of Helene stay off to our east. Lows will again
drop into the 50s across the area. Fog last night was fairly
minimal, and with models showing a similar or even a slightly drier
environment, no fog was added into the gridded forecast.

The sun will stay out across most of the area tomorrow. Helene`s
outflow channel does get closer on some guidance, so patchy to
broken cirrus is possible across central Oklahoma. However, the RDPS
(usually pretty good when it comes to cloud modeling) keeps the
cirrus much further to the east. With this in mind, and with
temperatures today so far outpacing NBM by several degrees in
central Oklahoma in particular, tomorrow`s highs have been bumped by
a degree or two compared to today`s forecast. The one potentially
more noticeable sensible difference in the forecast tomorrow
compared to today is that northerly winds will be maybe 5 mph
stronger on average due to Helene`s impact on the pressure
gradient.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The remnants of Hurricane Helene will have phased with an upper
low centered over the Mississippi Valley by Friday night. This
upper low and the remnants of Helene will remain nearly
stationary through the weekend while weakening, leaving the area
on the western periphery of a modest northerly flow regime. Model
guidance keeps all precipitation associated with Helene to the
east of the region. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected
over much of the CWA on Saturday along with a breezy northwesterly
flow with gusts of 20-25 mph possible.

Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable lows in the
50s (northwest) to around 60 (southeast) can be expected through
the weekend. Mid 80s to low 90s are expected on Monday before a
cold front approaches from the north Tuesday morning, leading to
comfortable highs in the 70s across central and northern zones on
Tuesday and lows Tuesday night approaching the upper 40s over
northern zones. No precipitation is expected from the front. Highs
are expected to rebound into the 80s area-wide by midweek.

Chiappa

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected. Light and somewhat variable winds
this evening will increase from the north tomorrow, especially at
the eastern TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  83  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  58  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           54  87  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     54  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...26