Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
543 FXUS64 KOUN 210734 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 234 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - 60-80% shower/storm chances Saturday night through Monday morning. Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon / evening. - Hot/humid conditions continue Saturday, cold front brings cooler weather Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Another hot day today with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees. This time we should stay just below heat advisory criteria for the most part. Showers and storms are expected to move into northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon as the upper low shifts east across the four corners region. Most of the CAMs have this convective activity moving into our forecast area between 4pm and 6pm, then slowly shifting southeastward through the night. Elevated instability and deep layer shear look to be just enough to support a low risk for elevated hailers. What may end up being the bigger issue is heavy rain with the potential for localized flooding. PWATs in northwest Oklahoma reach to around 2 standard deviations above normal (1.5 to 1.75 inches). Additionally, steering flow should have storms moving mostly parallel to the surface trough. One mitigating factor will be the progressive nature of the system. A second mitigating factor will be higher flash flood guidance, given the lack of recent rainfall (1 hr guidance is in the 2.5 to 4 inch range). Overall, this will yield a low risk for flooding across western Oklahoma. Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High chances (60-80%) for showers and storms will progress across the area with the cold front on Sunday as the main upper wave ejects into the central Plains. A marginal risk for severe storms will accompany this activity, mainly along a broad area centered on the I- 44 corridor. Heavy rain and flooding will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas (where HREF has the highest QPF amounts). Conditions look similar to what was described for Saturday night (see Short Term), though the HREF is a little more aggressive with precipitation amounts. Rain chances will diminish Monday morning as the front pushes south of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front. Sunday will feature a tight temperature gradient with highs in the 70s / 80s generally northwest of I-44 and in the low to mid 90s southeast of I- 44. Sunday night lows will drop into the 40s across northwest Oklahoma. By Monday highs are expected to be in the 70s across much of the area. The cooler temperatures will persist into midweek as upper troughing remains over the central US. We may see additional shower/storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday as additional shortwave energy rounds the base of the trough, but models are not consistent on the track of this wave and where associated rain chances will be. For now, our highest chances during this period are across the southwestern half of the area, but this could change. Day/Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon tomorrow. Current SHRA and TSRA expected to stay north and west of northern Oklahoma terminals. By late tomorrow afternoon and evening, chances for TSRA and at least MVFR conditions will increase substantially across northwest Oklahoma, into north central and west central Oklahoma by end of forecast, so will include PROB30/TEMPO groups there. The wind shift to northerly and TSRA chances will spread south and east tomorrow night and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 96 71 85 55 / 0 10 60 70 Hobart OK 97 69 81 53 / 10 40 80 60 Wichita Falls TX 99 74 91 58 / 0 0 50 60 Gage OK 95 59 71 45 / 50 80 60 20 Ponca City OK 98 68 82 53 / 10 40 70 60 Durant OK 97 73 94 63 / 0 0 10 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11