Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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441 FXUS63 KPAH 241138 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible today, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. A few severe storms with a damaging wind threat cannot be ruled out. - A stubborn upper low will keep chances of showers in the forecast Wednesday through next Monday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially in the heat of the day. - The remnants of a tropical system may merge with the upper low and bring a chance of heavy rainfall Thursday through at least Saturday. Breezy conditions will also be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A cold front will pass eastward across the region through early afternoon. The latest HRRR is not very bullish on additional convection developing ahead of it, but at least some scattered storms will be possible over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky around midday. Shear will be fairly healthy, so if there is any substantial sunshine ahead of the front through midday, a few severe storms with mainly a damaging wind threat will be possible. A small chance of showers will continue behind the front this afternoon and tonight, as a large upper low descends on the Quad State. The upper low will meander about the region through the weekend and should eventually push east of the Quad State by next Tuesday. The presence of the cold core aloft will keep at least small chances of showers and heat of the day thunderstorms in the forecast each day through at least next Monday. There remains some uncertainty with the location of the upper low, as it interacts with the remnants of a tropical storm Thursday through Saturday. The latest idea is for the tropical system to lift north through Georgia and then eventually be drawn westward into the upper low over the Quad State. Copious mid and upper-level moisture will stream over the Quad State Thursday through Saturday. However, there is some potential that the low-level moisture could be trapped on the east side of the Appalachians, which could limit the heavy rainfall threat across the Quad State. Regardless, the current WPC QPF from Wednesday night through next Monday is generally 3-4" throughout the region. Given the recent rains across the region, heavy rains of that magnitude could result in some flooding issues across the region. Stay tuned! Given the persistent upper low over the region, and lingering low-level moisture, diurnal temperature ranges will be stunted through the period. In general, high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal, and low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 IFR or lower ceilings will gradually become VFR through the morning at KCGI, KPAH, and KMVN. KEVV and KOWB may see MVFR ceilings in the next hour or two. These, too, will lift to VFR levels by late morning. It appears that convection will be quite isolated and generally confined to west Kentucky today. It should remain south and east of KOWB and KPAH. West southwest winds may gust 15-20kts at times this afternoon at KEVV and KOWB. Guidance strongly suggests that there will be more IFR or lower ceilings or fog late tonight. However, there should be a lot of 850mb-700mb moisture through the night, so kept the forecast VFR tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS