327
FXUS63 KPAH 311900
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weak mid level impulses will move northeast across the area
through tonight, as a shortwave trof over the Plains approaches
from the west. The shortwave and associated surface low pressure
system will move across the area Saturday, resulting in a very
high (greater than 80 percent chance) of rain and isolated
storms later tonight through Saturday afternoon. On Saturday
there is a marginal risk for severe storms per the Storm
Prediction Center. Forecast parameters not overly favorable for
severe convection, given weak overall lapse rates. There could
be some downburst winds given the instability and forecast moist
vertical profiles, but mostly non-severe with less than ideal
differential theta-e. We should see PoPs on the decrease later
Saturday through Sunday. However, we will leave some slight
chances in given the unsettled look in a few of the models. It
could end up mostly dry.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will continue through 00 UTC with ESE winds 8 to
16 kts, with some higher gusts 20+ kts. Tonight, as rain chances
increase, we will see MVFR to IFR conditions develop, especially
after 06 UTC, and continue through Saturday, as winds become
southeast 6 to 12 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...CN