Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
748 FXUS65 KPIH 220829 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 229 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... A prolonged period of quiet weather is expected for much of the week across eastern Idaho. We`ll see the upper level pattern change a bit throughout the week ahead but as far as sensible weather is concerned, overall differences from day to day will be rather minimal. The area remains in a region of limited upper level flow so today will be nearly a carbon copy of the weather we saw yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer. A weak shortwave will move well to our north on Monday across northern Montana but the feature won`t have much of an impact aside from maybe nudging winds up a few MPHs. All models are now void of any precip potential anywhere as this feature sweeps well to our north. High pressure will quickly shift over the area as the low moves east and this will allow temperatures to begin to warm up Tuesday and into Wednesday with the latter looking like the warmest day. Lower valleys may see temps return to the low to mid 80s. Thursday and beyond, the high will have moved east of the region and our area looks to be on the far southern edge of a jet that will send a series of systems to the north of the area. This should allow temps to drop a few degrees from their Wednesday peak and bring them a bit closer to normal for late week and into the weekend. Could see a slight uptick in the synoptic winds as well during this period but nothing overly impactful. Things will likely remain dry though into the weekend as any significant moisture will remain away from the area. Much model uncertainty comes into play after the weekend with the GFS and ECMWF having striking differences on the pattern, the latter of which would bring some winter weather to parts of the forecast area. Not anything to get excited about being so far out in time but just something worth mentioning for now. We`ll see how things trend over the days ahead as there is a lot of time to watch this. McKaughan && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected through the period with light winds and mostly clear skies. Only CIGs expected today will be some occasional high clouds streaking across the region but will not be impactful. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... Clear skies and weak westerly flow means a slight warming up and drying out over yesterday. An upper level trough will bring higher humidity, some clouds, cooler temperatures, and some breezy wind on Mon. The trough approaches from the north, so wind direction will likely be more west and northwest compared to the usual south to southwest. An upper level blocking high pattern will slide over the Great Basin, allowing temperatures by mid-week to be summer-like even though today is the equinox. This upper level ridge does break down slightly on Thu as a trough passes through southern Canada, but the precipitation does not develop this far south. The most expected is a fairly strong wind and cooler temperatures (but still much warmer than normal, which would be around 70 deg F in the Snake River plain). Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$