813
FXUS65 KPIH 260923
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
323 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night.
A weak upper level short wave will pass quickly through this
morning with all precipitation staying north of southeast Idaho so
no rain is expected. Temperatures should be about 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than yesterday. Winds will be in the 10 to 20 mph range in
the Arco Desert and Upper Snake River Plain. Highs will generally
be in the 60s to low 70s mountains and upper 70s to low 80s
valleys. Lows tonight again generally 40s and 50s with some 30s
high mountain valleys. A building upper ridge centered over the 4
corners region will push north and expect yet another warmup
Friday with highs back into the low to mid 80s valleys and 70s
mountains so the trend of very warm conditions continues in the
short term. Will have light winds Friday under high pressure. Lows
again Friday night in the 40s and 50s with some 30s again mountain
valleys.
GK

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday.
Upper level 4 corner ridge axis shifts east Saturday and
southwesterly flow aloft returns and very hot conditions expected
once again. Highs in low elevations mid to upper 80s and 90
degrees again possible in some locations in the Magic Valley and
Snake River Plain. So possibly 15 to 20 degrees or so degrees
above late September normal. A short wave passes to the north
Sunday into Monday and expect it to cool down and model blends
have it about 5 degrees cooler Sunday with valley highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s and much colder Monday with highs down to the
50s to lower 60s mountains and mid 60s to lower 70s valleys so
right around normal. Lows by Sunday night into next week generally
30s and 40s. Sunday will be the windiest day in the long term
period with sustained 15 to 20 mph winds possible in the Snake
Plain behind the cold front moving through.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Another clear day expected with most cloud cover with the upper
wave passing to the north. Impacts will again be an afternoon wind
increase at IDA, PIH, and DIJ. Expect southwest 10 to 15 knot
sustained winds after 18Z with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range.
Lighter winds at BYI and the normal diurnal northwest to southeast
variations as SUN.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The upcoming week continues to feature zero in the
way of precipitation chances, never mind precipitation amounts,
continuing the nearly week so far of literal drought. Temperatures
will be cooler than yesterday`s near record heat, down 5 to 10
degrees for highs, even though many locations in the Snake River
plain are mild tonight, thanks to moderate wind continuing late.
Another upper level trough swings through on Sat night/Sun, and that
could bring some Red Flag conditions, as Sat afternoon will be even
warmer than Wed was, and it could include fire weather forecast
zones that are still critical when it comes to fuels. Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$