Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
700 FXZS60 NSTU 230054 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 154 PM SST Sun Sep 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... Close proximity of a trough to the north together with open cell cumuli clouds from the east has continued to bring brief passing showers across the territory throughout the day. Radiosonde observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (23/00Z) show a conditionally stable atmosphere profile with a hint of possible thunderstorm activity nearby. Model solutions are showing a broad high pressure system to the southwest, migrating east as it pushes a boundary layer closer to the islands, increasing the potential for adverse weather by Tuesday through the end of the forecast period. A more stronger high pressure system following the first high will maintain a stable trade wind flow with embedded showers for the rest of the forecast period. Thus, fair weather conditions with a moderate southeast breeze to remain for tonight through at least early Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers with possible thunderstorms and increased trades is expected for the rest of the forecast period. && .Marine... Seas are expected to remain favorable for water recreational activites for this forecast period. However, by late Wednesday through the end of the period, trades are expected to reach fresh breeze. These wind strengths are likely to bring choppy and rough seas. Also, with the aforementioned high pressure system moving closer to the islands by Tuesday, a boundary layer will move over the area, increasing the potential for possible thunderstorms. Further monitoring and observations will continue for any major changes. In the meantime, there are no significant swells expected for this forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen