041
FXUS62 KRAH 291406
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1006 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved, reinforcing cold front will move through the area
this evening, followed by high pressure from central Canada and the
Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 1006 AM Wednesday...

Mid morning water vapor imagery depicts upper level low pressure
over eastern Canada, with a trailing shortwave over Ohio. Farther
east, a weak surface ridge remains in place over Virginia with only
a few clouds across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain of North
Carolina. Temps this morning are generally in the mid 70s, with
noticeably lower dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The Ohio shortwave and attendant weak surface cold front will cross
the mountains and slide into northern NC late this afternoon. While
widespread showers/thunderstorms are not anticipated, there will
likely be enough mid level moisture in place to support a few widely
scattered showers along the NC/VA border late this afternoon.
Instability is meager with only 100-250 J/KG of MLCAPE to work with
but there are a few CAMs that suggest the development of a few
showers just before sunset. Anything that forms will be short lived
and should dissipate just after sunset.

Temps today will range from the lower 80s in the NW to the upper 80s
in the southeast. Lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

With the Eastern US trough still overhead, an amplifying shortwave
trough will dive south through the Mid-Atlantic states during the
day, and then into NC through the overnight hours. PWATS will
continue to hover around the 10th percentile, with little to no
instability to work with. However, isolated showers/non-zero pops
are possible Thursday evening and into Thursday night, mainly across
eastern/coastal plain counties.

Otherwise, cooler as Canadian high pressure builds south into the
area. Highs ranging from mid/upper 70s north to lower 80s south.
Lows in the lower to middle 50s north to upper 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

The upper level trough will shift east and offshore on Fri, with the
sub-tropical ridge progressing eastward toward the region Fri night,
then continuing slowly eastward through the area Sat/Sat night.
Meanwhile to the west, a s/w trough will move eastward through the
MS Valley Sat/Sat night, then continue eastward across the
Appalachians and through the mid-Atlantic Sun/Sun night. Another s/w
will follow behind it, however the model guidance still varies wrt
timing and track. At the surface, cool high pressure over the OH
Valley Fri, will build slowly esewd into the mid-Atlantic Fri night,
then through the Carolinas Sat/Sat night. The high will move ese to
off the Southeast US coast on Sun, where it should sit through Tue.
A warm front should lift through the area Sun night/Mon, with
southerly return flow will once again advect warm, moist air into
the area through early next week. For now, expect largely dry
weather through Sun, with chances for precipitation returning for
Sun night through Tue. Temperatures should be near to below normal
through Sun, then moderating through early/mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Isolated showers are possible across the
north/northeastern NC between 21-03z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will build from cntl Canada to
the middle Atlantic and favor VFR conditions in cntl NC through Sat.
As the high shifts offshore, sly flow and increasing moisture will
increase the risk of patchy fog and stratus Sun morning and a chance
of showers/storms Sun afternoon-night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...CBL/MWS