Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
187 FXUS65 KRIW 262149 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 349 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers will continue through the evening across northern Wyoming. - Dry and sunny conditions expected for Memorial Day. - Precipitation chances increase by midweek, though temperatures are likely to remain around or above normal through the week. - River rises possible this week due to increasing mountain snowmelt. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 A weak shortwave evident in water vapor imagery is clipping northern Wyoming this afternoon. This will lead to a few showers scattered across northern portions of the CWA through the rest of the day, most numerous in the vicinity of the Bighorns. Models have continued to back off on rain amounts with this activity, however, and most areas will remain dry. Otherwise, it will continue to be breezy pretty much everywhere else through the afternoon. Precipitation and wind will wane with sunset as the shortwave moves away to the east. Memorial Day will be dry all around with plenty of sunshine as stronger ridging returns to the area. High temperatures will peak around or a few degrees above normal. It will be breezy in the usual spots, but overall fairly calm by Wyoming standards. The warming trend will continue on Tuesday as highs reach into the 80s east of the Divide and upper 70s west. There will be a chance of some afternoon convection, however, as the ridge begins to break down and available moisture increases. The best chances will be over the western mountains, and most of the area will again remain dry. With the warming temperatures, snowmelt is likely to increase this week and may lead to an increased river flooding concern. By Tuesday night guidance is showing a stronger trough pushing into the northwestern US. This will slide east through Wednesday, though how far south it drops will have a large impact on the weather across Wyoming. Current trends have placed this farther south, bringing at least slight precipitation chances to the majority of the area. For now, the forecast continues to show the best chances across northern and western portions of the area. Further out, guidance is showing fairly zonal or slightly cyclonic flow through the end of the week. This would lead to temperatures around average and mainly dry conditions, though with afternoon mountain convection chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with the only concern being an isolated shower possible at KWRL/KCPR this evening. Winds should begin to decrease shortly after sunset and become light for the overnight hours into Monday morning. Skies will continue to gradually clear throughout the period with most terminals becoming SKC by the late evening. Skies are expected to remain SKC through the majority of Monday with a few high clouds lingering across KJAC, KCOD, and KCPR. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Myers AVIATION...Dziewaltowski